Ireland is unlikely to meet 2020 EU targets for greenhouse gas emissions, due in part to projected increases from agriculture and transport, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has warned.

The Irish target is for greenhouse gas emissions from the non-Emissions Trading Scheme (non-ETS) sector in 2020 to be 20% lower than they were in 2005.

The non-ETS sector covers emissions from agriculture, transport, residential, commercial, non-energy intensive industry and waste sectors.

However, current EPA projections indicate that emissions will be only 4% to 6% below 2005 levels by 2020.

For the period 2015-2020, agriculture emissions are projected to increase by 4% to 5%

Agriculture and transport are projected to account for 74% of Ireland’s non-ETS sector emissions in 2020, with agriculture accounting for 45% and transport at 29%.

For the period 2015-2020, agriculture emissions are projected to increase by 4% to 5%, according to the EPA.

Transport emissions are projected to show strong growth over the period to 2020, with a 10% to 12% increase on 2015 levels.

The EPA notes that the projected increased agriculture emissions are affected by the Food Wise 2025 Strategy.

The EPA also noted that as well as the projected growth in emissions, there will be a shortfall in meeting 2020 targets for energy efficiency and renewable energy.

Commenting on the figures, Laura Burke, EPA director general, said: “The EPA’s latest greenhouse gas projections are a disappointing indicator that the current range of policy measures to reduce emissions and to meet compliance obligations are failing in an improving economy.”

Farmer reaction

Reacting to the EPA projections, the IFA said the climate report highlights the need for urgent action on farm-scale renewables.

James Murphy, IFA renewables project chair called on Minister for Communications, Climate Action and Environment Denis Naughten to urgently progress plans to introduce supports for farm-scale and community renewable projects, as emissions from transport and energy continue to spiral out of control.

“Climate gases from agriculture have reduced by 5.5% since 1990, with emissions from transport increasing by 130% over the same time period,” said Murphy. “This is not a reason for inaction in agriculture; farming can do more particularly in bioenergy and farm scale and community based renewables.”

“To achieve this, Minister Naughten must immediately put in place the long-awaited National Energy Forum to develop a coherent policy framework.

“More importantly, this must be supported with meaningful tariff supports for farm-scale and community-based energy production,” he added.

How are the agricultural emissions projections calculated?

Agricultural emission projections are based on data from Teagasc, provided to the EPA in December 2015. A key assumption underpinning the agriculture emissions projections is sustainable growth under Food Wise 2025.

Is forestry taken into account?

The effect of forest sinks is not included in this compliance assessment. This is in line with EU accounting rules, which do not allow the use of forest sinks to meet EU 2020 targets.

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