A leaked European memo proposes that, while trade in goods across the Irish border would be subject to customs controls, agriculture could fall under an all-island remit, free from customs and border checks.

The memo, thought to come from the office of European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, was reported on RTÉ news on Wednesday morning.

It is understood that An Taoiseach Leo Varadkar had been made aware of the proposal within the memo earlier this year.

The memo is believed to be written by a senior adviser to president Juncker and states that, in the case of the UK not being able to find an adequate solution to agricultural cross-border trade post-Brexit, “a distinct all-Ireland solution” would be proposed, “based on the distinct devolution of competence to Northern Ireland of agriculture and health [by Westminster]”.

The UK currently adheres to food and animal welfare guidelines followed by all EU member states. However, when the UK leaves the EU in March 2019, they may change their food and farm health guidelines.

This could potentially endanger the herd health status of Ireland in the event of a UK animal disease outbreak, given the active livestock trade across the border.

Tariffs and customs controls on the border post-Brexit could also threaten trade and the livelihood of farmers who have land straddling both sides of the border in Ireland.

The memo from the European Commission proposes that an all-island agriculture industry would greatly diminish any disruption to trade or animal health concerns post-Brexit.

Mixed messages on Ireland

To date, there have been mixed messages from Northern Ireland (NI), with the leader of Sinn Féin, Michelle O’Neill, stating that NI would have special status within the EU post-Brexit.

However, only yesterday the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), Arlene Foster, stated that NI would leave the EU in line with the rest of the UK.

The DUP currently holds the balance of power in a coalition government with the Conservative Party in England, and it is unlikely that Prime Minister Theresa May will go against the wishes of the leader of the DUP.

Trade

There are concerns regarding how Northern Ireland’s food industry could be split from Britain, especially given the UK’s ambitions for future trade deals.

The UK’s whole milk powder production (WMP) is centred in Northern Ireland. UK exports of milk powder to non-EU countries was worth £114m to the government in 2016. With the majority of demand being for WMP, it is unlikely that Britain will want to give away access to their main area of supply.

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