Beef is Russia's sleeping giant

War, international politics, and their collateral damage continue to dog and to weigh heavily on Russia. But Russian farmers are busier and more productive than ever.

It was always like this in Russia. This is one of the world’s great anomalies. Some farmers always seem to win, in times of war, or international disruption and unrest.

Still, there is no doubt that brutal wars in Syria and Ukraine are a huge drain on the wider Russian economy. Russia’s international image too has taken a hammering in the last few years. Persistent low oil and gas prices, historically Russia’s two biggest exports, also continue to deprive Russian farmers of state aid.

However, within the last three years, Russia has discovered a new secret weapon. This weapon is already having both long-range and long-term effects in Russia, in Ireland, and throughout the world. And it’s still only in its infancy.

Today, wheat, the world’s most essential and most important agricultural crop, is Russia’s new secret weapon. Wheat is now more valuable to Russia than grass is to Ireland, or gold is to South Africa.

Wheat and grass share many blue-chip crop characteristics. Both can be grown naturally, cheaply, and extensively. Both of them produce in abundance.

These two crops are synonymous with national food security plus affordable domestic food prices and supplies. Both crops generate high levels of high value agri-food exports.

The crops are also the basis for a big variety of very vibrant and highly sustainable national livestock and agri-food enterprises.

Just one example perfectly demonstrates this last fact, in Russia’s case. Seven out of the top 20 pig farmers in Russia today did not have a pig eight years ago. Today, some of this group have over 100,000 breeding sows each.

Four main triggers have kick-started the sudden rise of the modern Russian pig industry. These are:

Ten years ago, Russia was one of the biggest wheat importers in the world. Last year, Russian wheat growers replaced America as the leading wheat exporter in the world. This followed three record wheat harvests in a row. Weather permitting, Russia looks well-set to repeat this performance in 2017.

This September, weather and soil moisture conditions in Russia’s main southern grain belt have been exceptionally favourable for sowing winter wheat crops.

Accordingly, at the end of September, nearly 70% of Russia’s winter wheat crop was already sown. This is one month ahead of schedule. It certainly augurs well for a record Russian wheat harvest four years running.

Specifically, now all of Russia’s livestock farmers are also major beneficiaries of Russia’s bumper grain harvests. Russian pig, poultry and dairy farmers in particular now have access to practically unlimited quantities of cheaper home-grown grains of all kinds. Beef farmers in Russia are developing slower. This is because Russian-produced pork and poultry meat are very cheap.

As a result, the Russian palate is now well and truly bored with pork, chicken, fish and vegetables. But when the Russian economy picks up again, the Russian diet will also change dramatically. Specifically, a large block of high-earning consumers will create a huge new surge in the market for prime fresh beef.

But it is still a live enough prospect for Rabobank to notice. The Dutch Farmers Bank recently took a leaf out of the Irish Farmers Journal and described the Russian beef market as Russia’s sleeping giant.