With the UK vote on EU membership expected in either June or September, Phelim O’Neill explores what trade arrangements in the event of Brexit may be. The most immediate impact would be felt by Northern Ireland farmers as their direct payments and pillar two supports would come from the British government, instead of being ring-fenced from Brussels. For the Republic of Ireland, the UK is our main market, taking over half of our agri-food production. Anything that makes this trade more difficult or costly, as the ending of the single market would, is a threat to farm incomes. In the context of this debate, we should not ignore the real risk to our beef trade from Britain agreeing a trade deal with the Mercosur region in the event of a Brexit.