Brexit uncertainty dominates London meat forum

Prospects for UK farming have a major impact on Irish producers of beef, lamb and pork as Britain is our main market for all species.

In the morning session, following a welcome and general overview from chairman Peter Kendall, former NFU president, delegates heard from Professor Alan Matthews of Trinity College and Alan Mc Lay of Promar International.

Additional costs for UK under Brexit scenario

Prof Matthews dealt with the implications of Britain leaving the EU, or Brexit as it is referred to. It is a case of swapping the relative stability of the EU, whatever its faults, for the unknown, Matthews said. There will be additional costs of perhaps around 5% in a withdrawal situation to comply with doing export business with the remaining EU. He also highlighted that political influences will determine the outcome more than economic ones.

Currency is key

Alan McLay dealt with the factors that affect the competitiveness of UK agriculture, highlighting that there is much more to competitiveness than cost of production. The impact of a strong currency in attracting imports while frustrating exports was singled out as a key feature of 2015, particularly for British lamb prices, which were at their lowest levels since 2009.

The pig industry had an exceptionally bad year, with currency difficulties adding to the extra supplies on the market. He also highlighted the huge benefit northern Europe enjoys with freight costs, particularly in doing business with western Africa. A value of $360/t makes EU exports particularly competitive compared with Australia and New Zealand. This no doubt benefits Irish dairy and beef exports to this region.

Brexit – unknown territory

In the open discussion session, Brexit featured strongly, with a huge desire to understand what the aftermath would look like – but realising that it will be an unknown. The other main theme was that it will be a political decision in which agriculture will have little influence.

Phelim O'Neill speaks to Debbie Boucher of AHDB Beef And Lamb on the future outlook of beef at the AHDB conference on Tuesday.

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