When the heads of the EU and Canada sit at a table in front of a rainforest of paper and sign the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), we might be inclined to think that is that sorted. After all, it took seven years of negotiations and a last minute hiccup with the regional government of Wallonia in Belgium to reach this point.

Next steps

However, there is more. The deal now goes before Trade MEPs at their committee on 10 November, with a likely vote to approve CETA being taken at a meeting of the Parliament’s Trade Committee on 5 December.

Assuming it clears the committee, it will go before the full parliament for a vote as part of the co-decision-making process that now governs the EU – previously the parliament was only advisory to the Commission.

Political manoeuvring

While we can expect some political manoeuvring among MEPs, it is thought the numbers are in place to get it safely through, particularly as the President Martin Schulz’s German Socialists, who had been making noises, are now on board and the socialists are the second-largest block in Parliament.

14 February is thought of as a date for a vote and if it clears this hurdle, the treaty will take effect provisionally.

It will operate with this status until it is ratified by the member states which is where the fun really could start. In the present political mood across many EU countries with complex coalition governments and elections pending in the Netherlands, France and Germany in 2017, it is not beyond possibility that a populist anti-trade mood could scupper ratification in some countries. Already the conclusion of the trade deal with the Ukraine is held up as it hasn’t got approval in the Dutch Parliament.

Irish view

In Ireland, while the Canada deal has not generated the same hostility as either TTIP or Mercosur, it has been opposed by several political groups and has not got the support of the farm organisations.

It was thought this stage wouldn’t occur after the Lisbon treaty vote gave authority to the EU to conclude trade deals but at the height of TTIP opposition a year ago, they decided to consult member states on the Canadian, presumably in the belief that it would generate confidence that the EU was willing to listen to its members.

If they get the approval across the still EU 28, it will have worked but if it falls in a member state and pressure doesn’t reverse the decision then we are in uncharted territory.

Brexit referendum

It brings back memories of David Cameron’s plan for resolving the divisive EU issue in his Conservative party with a referendum. It bought him time but ultimately brought the house down. CETA isn’t quite on par with that decision but any process that can fall at a number of specific hurdles, means that opponents have only to be lucky once.

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