Following this week’s 10% increase in price for WMP (whole milk powder) there is an expectation that China will continue with its 24% volume increase for the second half but some commentators are worried that there will be slowdown in the second half.

According to Rabobank, demand is still fragile in China and the recent increase in imports has led to higher stock levels. This may cause imports to slow again later this year.

USDA’s (US Department of Agriculture) also forecast China’s import of WMP will increase by 8% this year to 375,000 tonnes.

China has already imported 292,000 tonnes in the first half of the year, which leaves a significant shortfall in demand for the second half. Even though there is fear of a slowdown there is also signs of stirring demand in China, but concerns continue about the level of that stock held in the country and the impact it will have on a sustained global dairy recovery.

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Rabobank has said demand is still fragile and the recent import increase may lead to slower imports again later in the year.