Creed: no upside to a Brexit for agri-food sector

Today, Thursday 23 June, is the day the British public go to the polls to vote on whether to leave or remain in the European Union.

Results from the voting are expected to emerge overnight, with a final tally expected early tomorrow morning.

According to the Evening Standard newspaper in Britain, the most recent poll of the campaign indicates a narrow lead for the Remain camp, showing 52% in favour of staying in the EU, and 48% for a Brexit.

Farm organisations in Britain have come out in favour of remaining in the EU but on a recent tour of the UK, the Irish Farmers Journal met many farmers who wanted to leave.

No upside

Speaking exclusively to the Irish Farmers Journal on voting day at a meeting of the ICMSA's national council, Minister for Agriculture Michael Creed reiterated comments made previously in the Dáil that there would be "no upside" to a Brexit for the Irish economy, including our agri-food sector.

"Well obviously we see no upside in any sector of the Irish economy in terms of a British exit," Creed said.

"We have done modelling on the impact it would have in the agricultural sector and we have fed that into the whole Government approach which is being coordinated by the Department of An Taoiseach. But we see no upside in this for the Irish economy and certainly no upside for the agri-food sector."

Creed added that the Department's response to a Brexit "would depend on the terms of the UK's departure", which will be negotiated over a two-year period from the outcome of the referendum.

Beef

On the beef side, the minister said the real fear is that the UK would be free to conclude trade negotiations unilaterally with other countries.

"This is the real fear," he said. "Ireland has obviously been feeding into an EU approach to trade deals like Mercosur and TTIP. But if the UK was standalone nation concluding its own trade deals, there is a significant danger that it could import beef from South America. We put nearly 45% of our beef on British supermarket shelves, but we can't prevent the UK from doing trade deals like that if it leaves the EU."

Dairy

On the dairy side, Creed said a Brexit would result in "chaos" for the dairy processing sector.

"Take the co-op LacPatrick for example," he said. "LacPatrick gathers milk north of the border and processes it south of the border. If that border becomes a border between the UK and EU, what would be the consequences in terms of the collection and bringing over the border of that milk?"

The minister concluded by saying that the detail of the impact is something that cannot be anticipated until such time as negotiations take place.

"We’re a friendly nation to the UK, we would like them to stay, I hope they do. But obviously if they don’t, we would like them to depart on the most favourable terms to us."

Read more

Implications for Irish agriculture if British cast a Brexit ballot

Full coverage: Brexit