EU US trade deal signals tough time for Irish beef sector - report

The value of Irish food exports could increase by €230m to €270m if the EU and America conclude a bilateral trade deal, according to a draft report obtained by the Irish Farmers Journal. However, the report, which was carried out by research company Copenhagen Economics, suggests that the value of Irish beef output could contract by as much as €50m.

The report sets out what the impact of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) would be on all aspects of the Irish economy as well as different sectors including agriculture.

The report states: “In the case of beef, we expect output to contract by between 1% and 3%. Relative to 2013, this is equivalent to a contraction of between €25m to €45m. Output in primary production is expected to contract by approximately 1.5%, equivalent to €49m relative to 2013.”

The report puts forward two scenarios for the beef sector: America obtaining a 50,000 metric tonnes beef quota into Europe and obtaining a 75,000 metric tonnes beef quota as part of the trade deal. The report said it would expect America to “fully fill” either of these quotas. The Irish Farmers Journal understands that the US officials have been lobbying EU Commission officials in Brussels multiple times for either of those volumes.

The report strikes a serious note of caution towards to the Irish suckler herd.

“Another concern arises because meat supply from dairy herds is relatively inelastic, whereas meat from the suckler cows…is more elastic. The concern is that suckler cows could bear more of the adjustment costs.”

The report suggests that the value of Irish dairying export would increase by 10% or €162m based on 2013 export figures. The report suggests that dairy imports from the US into Ireland could reach €73m, resulting in an overall €40m increase for the Irish dairy sector.

Exports of processed foods would also see an increase of some €94m while imports would rise by €84m according to the report.

America and Europe are negotiating the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) since July 2013 and so far eight rounds of negotiations have taken place, the most recent of which was in February.

The Department of Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation commissioned research company Copenhagen Economics to carry out a report on the potential impact on Irish exports from TTIP. Last June, Jobs Minister Richard Bruton delivered the executive summary from the report where he said the Irish GDP could increase by 1.1% as a result of TTIP.

Minister Bruton and EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström will officially launch the report at an event in Dublin Castle tomorrow (Friday) shortly after 10am.