The Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is a potential trade deal between the US and EU that has caused considerable fear among all farmers, in particular beef producers.

Following Donald Trump’s election last November as US president, negotiations stalled due to his negative view of trade talks.

His stance has not appeared to have softened.

Following President Trump’s visit to Brussels last week, a working group on possibly re-igniting TTIP has been established. However, it is far from straightforward.

The purpose of the group is to address issues around mutual recognition of standards but it is not seen as a reopening of TTIP, even though compatibility of standards was a major sticking point in the negotiations.

TTIP not the only show in town

Even though TTIP is on the backburner, there are several other trade discussions involving the EU progressing. Two in particular, those with Mexico and Japan, are coming close to conclusion.

Talks with Japan might have concluded already but the strong Japanese defensive position on agriculture seems to be a sticking point.

The EU is looking for a significant tariff-free quota and this is one trade deal that poses no threat to farmers in any sector as Japan is among the biggest importers in the world for agri produce. Negotiators are in constant dialogue so we can expect a conclusion soon.

Mexico

Talks with Mexico are also progressing with speed. Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström visited there in recent weeks and the next round of negotiations are scheduled for the last week of June in Mexico.

The South American countries that make up Mercosur trading bloc are also pushing to get that long-running discussion concluded this year but this will be one of the more difficult deals to complete.

A further round of talks are scheduled to take place in Brussels during the first week of July.

Mercosur moving

Rumours in the South American press that the Brazilians were going to ask for a 200,000t beef quota will be a worry to farmers.

There was outrage last year when it was tentatively suggested by officials that the EU would consider offering 78,000t, with member states including Ireland hastily acting to make sure it did not go any further than being an idea.

Since then we have had the cumulative impact assessment carried out by the Commission which confirms that beef farmers in the EU would take a hit by granting further access to the EU market for beef.

Commissioner for Agriculture Phil Hogan always talks of requests by major agricultural exporting countries having to be realistic and following Brazil’s recent meat scandal, their negotiating hand is weakened even though the official position is that they have no impact on trade discussions.

Brexit

Of course, the biggest negotiation of all from Ireland’s perspective is Brexit.

This is the ultimate journey into the unknown that could have a nuclear effect on Ireland if the opening negotiating positions are held on to by both parties.

Brexit has given the EU an increased impetus to get trade deals moving with other trading nations and between them they create plenty of risk with some opportunity for farmers in coming years.

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