Exclusive poll: Fine Gael farming support holding solid

FIne Gael retains the support of over half of declared voters, with Fianna Fail struggling to recover from its 2011 low.

Pat O'Toole

17 February 2016

Exclusive poll: Fine Gael farming support holding solid

Fine Gael launches its proposals to support rural Ireland on the farm of David Richardson at Aghade, Tullow, Co Carlow. An Taoiseach, Enda Kenny and Minister for Agriculture Simon Coveney tag new born Limousin calves assisted by their host farmer David Richardson.

Fine Gael has retained the support of over half the farming electorate. The Irish Farmers Journal/RedC poll, conducted from 9-15 February, shows that 53% of voters who expressed a preference are supporting Enda Kenny’s party. Fianna Fáil’s support is at 23%, only 4% up from their 2011 low. The two “civil war” parties still dominate among farmers. Sinn Féin, with 5%, are in third place, with Labour on 3%. Independents are on 15%. Only 16% of voters said they were undecided.

Fianna Fáil’s support is at 23%, only 4% up from their 2011 low. The two “civil war” parties still dominate among farmers. Sinn Féin, with 5%, are in third place, with Labour on 3%. Independents are on 15%. Only 16% of voters said they were undecided.

Fine Gael will feel that this poll provides some respite from a week of falling support among the wider electorate. This farmer-specific poll, drawn from 1,000 farmers accurately representing the demographic profile of Irish farming by location, age, farm size and farm enterprise, shows them holding steady.

Their support is actually up 5% from the last Irish Farmers Journal/REDC poll, conducted last September. It is only back 7% from their pre-2011 election support of 60%.

In contrast, Fianna Fáil will be disappointed with this result.

In May 2008, Fianna Fáil were the most popular party with farmers. Brian Cowen had just become party leader and Taoiseach, and 46% of farmers backed Fianna Fáil, 6% ahead of Fine Gael. Since then, support slumped, dropping almost 20% percentage points to 25% by September 2009, from where it has hardly moved since.

Listen to a discussion of our poll's results in the podcast below:

For Labour, the 3% is higher than the 1% last September, but down on the 5% they received prior to the 2011 election. With Labour TDs in rural constituencies fighting for dear life to hold their seats, any support lost or gained, particularly in the large five-seat constituencies, could prove vital.

Sinn Féin are standing at 5%, with their support solid all over the country, when once their farming support base was almost exclusively in the border counties.

Independents are at 15%, spurred by independent candidates with strong farming bases like Michael Lowry and Mattie McGrath in Tipperary, Michael Healy-Rae in Kerry, and Michael Fitzmaurice in Galway/Roscommon.

Among the other smaller parties, the chances of such as Renua’s Billy Timmins, Paul Bradford and Jason Fitzgerald are hard to assess in the context of a national poll like this.

There will be surprises, but farmers continue to predominantly back the two main parties. No surprises there.

Previous support

When our respondents were asked which party they supported in the 2011 general election, a remarkably consistent picture emerges.

Fine Gael received 49%, 4% less than they are currently on, while Fianna Fáil have gained 4%, up from 19% to 23%. Independents are the big movers, up from 7% to 13%, while Sinn Féin have gained 2%, up to 5% from 3%.

Only 18% said that they either did not vote (8%) or could not remember who they supported (10%) in 2011.

Support by region

Looking at the demographic breakdown of farmer support by region confirms the suspicion that Simon Coveney and Éamon Ó Cuív both have gained strong regional for their parties.

Fine Gael have 57% of support among Munster farmers (excluding don’t knows, as do all the figures quoted in this section), and fare poorest in Connacht/Ulster, with 45% of support. Meanwhile Fianna Fáil have 27% of support in Connacht/Ulster and only 17% in Munster.

This confirms that Éamon Ó Cuív policies are not popular in Munster, while the controversies over GLAS, the beef genomics scheme, and Coveney’s advocacy of minimising the flattening of payments have damaged Fine Gael in Connacht/Ulster, Taoiseach Enda Kenny’s base.

Leinster is fascinating. Fine Gael have 59%, higher than in Munster, and 6% higher than its national average.

Again, Coveney’s policies are playing well, with a high proportion of farming candidates in the province, including Pat Deering, Andrew Doyle, Martin Heydon and Michael D’Arcy.

Fianna Fáil also is higher than nationally, with 26%, almost the same level of support as in the west.

It may well be that this support is for candidates like Bobby Aylward and Barry Cowen, who are closer to Simon Coveny than to Éamon Ó Cuív on some issues.

Éamon Ó Cuív’s profile as an agriculture spokesman is as low-profile in Leinster as it is high-profile in Connacht.

In short, Ó Cuív is not hurting Fianna Fáil support in Leinster because he is not a major factor.