The upcoming British general election is actually at least three elections – all of which have the potential to change the nature of Brexit and significantly affect Irish farming.

First off, let’s look at Northern Ireland. This will be the sixth poll in three years – two general elections, two assembly elections, the 2014 European elections and the Brexit referendum itself.

The snap election called by Theresa May is purportedly to gain a mandate to negotiate the best Brexit deal possible.

No sector within the UK is as exposed to Brexit quite as much as farmers in Northern Ireland, just like no sector in the EU is as exposed as farmers in the Republic. But how much importance does May place on the needs of Northern Ireland? The fact that she chose now to call an election, just when the North’s politicians are struggling to reassemble a devolved government (pun entirely intended), must be a cause of concern. The last thing Arlene Foster, Michelle O’Neill and company needed was another layer of political intrigue.

We could have a London rule of Northern Ireland on polling day, or we could have another assembly election, the third in a year. Neither is conducive to the political stability May says she is seeking.

A greater overall majority for the Conservatives seems likely, which would erode the leverage the DUP’s eight MPs currently hold (May’s majority is currently only 17). That said, there are seven weeks until polling day – Labour are regarded as unelectable under Jeremy Corbyn, but wasn’t Donald Trump regarded as unelectable this time last year?

That leaves Scotland. The Conservatives are hoping to erode the dominance of the Scottish National Party, which won 56 of the 59 seats two years ago. Scotland voted no to Independence and no to Brexit – who do voters want to punish?

Theresa May did contact Enda Kenny on Tuesday, demonstrating awareness of how Ireland is deeply affected by Brexit. She may be better placed to negotiate a rational settlement if her survival is no longer dependent on a hard Brexit rump of MPs, but this election is fraught with danger.

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