Much still to play for in Fine Gael leadership contest

The Fine Gael leadership election was in danger of being over before it began at the weekend, but the party and possibly the country, owes Simon Coveney a debt of gratitude that it will now run its full course.

Why? Well, a coronation of Leo Varadkar as party leader and then inevitably as Taoiseach with no challenge would have been unsatisfactory.

As it is, Leo Varadkar at only 38 is poised to become the country’s youngest ever Taoiseach. Add the fact that he is the first openly gay government minister and that his father is Indian and it becomes obvious that his candidacy is not just a generational change. The ruthlessness with which he captured a significant majority of TDs and senators suggests political savvy and careful planning. It may also suggest that many, having decided which way the wind was blowing, decided to get downwind.

Popular vote

So does the “popular” vote among the 21,000 party members even matter?

Yes, it definitely does. Both candidates must now put their principles, proposals and policies before the party faithful, and have them publicly vetted. It’s not as defining a mandate as a general election, but it was known that Enda Kenny would step down during the lifetime of this Dáil.

For Simon Coveney, this election still matters, although it almost certainly will not end in victory. Still only 44, he may get another opportunity. Enda Kenny was 52 when he became leader, and lasted 15 years. A strong show of support from rank and file members will strengthen his standing, in the short and the long-term, when the dust has settled from the election.

One person who may have been wishing that this would end early is Minister for Agriculture Michael Creed. Only seven parliamentary party members remain undeclared at the time of writing. Of those, Enda Kenny and Michael Noonan are stepping away, and Martin Heydon is party chair.

All three will keep their counsel. MEPs Mairead McGuinness and Sean Kelly are biding their time. That leaves just two veterans, Kildare TD Bernard Durkan and Creed. As a Corkman he may have felt honour-bound not to abandon Simon Coveney, and at least he cannot be accused of jumping on the Varadkar bandwagon.

And yet, he is now isolated, which no politician likes.

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Fine Gael leadership race: 'work must pay' – Coveney