Colm McCarthy: Brexit - a benefit for Irish ports?

If the Brexit outcome means extensive checks and delays on Irish trade passing over the UK land-bridge, there will be more demand for direct shipping services between Ireland and the continent. In addition, some UK trade, including food products, could get diverted, with EU-27 countries replacing the UK altogether as trade partners. In both cases, there will be economic loss – people use the land-bridge because it suits them and they conduct import and export trade with the UK rather than the continent for the same reason.

After more than 40 years of British membership and the elimination of both tariff and non-tariff barriers, the internal market has yielded today’s geographical trade pattern in order to minimise costs. Firms end up with the suppliers and the customers that they want. Restore tariffs and trade barriers and the new pattern will be less convenient and costlier than the old.

There has been some speculation that the southern ports, especially Rosslare and Cork, could be Brexit beneficiaries and that funds should be invested soon in expanding port facilities and access.

At present, Dublin is the dominant sea-port, as indeed it is the dominant airport. Dublin handles 88% of the Republic’s Ro-Ro units with almost all of the rest using Rosslare. Cork has a decent share of the somewhat smaller Lo-Lo trade (there is none in Rosslare), Waterford has a little but the Dublin share is over 70%.

Moreover, the shipping companies already offer many direct services between Dublin and continental Europe, before any Brexit effects have come into play.

The reason is not some conspiracy against the provincial ports but the crude realities of economic geography. The Dublin area is the biggest origin and destination for goods traffic and is the most central location in the Republic and indeed on the whole island. The motorway network comes together at Dublin’s M50 ring-road and the Dublin Port Tunnel has made a big difference. Not merely does it keep truck traffic away from the city streets, it makes Dublin port accessible from all round the country, just a few minutes from the M50. Moreover, the trip from Galway or Sligo to Dublin will always be quicker than a journey down south.

The presumption that the southern ports are much closer to continental Europe is in any event a little deceptive. There is quite a corner to turn around Cornwall (the southwest of England gets in the way of ‘‘direct’’ routings) and steaming times from Dublin to continental ports are only a few hours longer than from Rosslare or Cork. A ferry taking 45 hours from Dublin to Rotterdam will take about 40 from Rosslare, for example.

Capacity out of Dublin to continental ports is already significant – last Saturday alone there were departures for Rotterdam (two), Cherbourg and Le Havre. More importantly perhaps, the biggest ferry in European waters, the 74,000t Celine, has commenced a regular service from Dublin to Rotterdam and the port expects additional capacity to continental destinations later this year.

None of this means that the southern ports cannot attract new services – there will be a direct sailing from Cork to Santander in northern Spain this summer. It is also possible that some of the Atlantic trade which currently tranships at British ports will be looking for hassle-free alternatives which could create openings for EU-27 ports like Cork or Cherbourg. But there is no obvious or inevitable bonanza in the offing.

There is also the possibility (some think the likelihood) that total Irish port traffic will be adversely affected by Brexit and the various ports will be sharing out a smaller cake.

The long-term trading relationship with the UK will not be settled by next autumn – we will be lucky if the withdrawal agreement has been clarified by then.

Trade talks

The trade talks will stretch out through the transition period, due to last until the end of 2020. The outcome from 2021 onwards could be anything from the UK staying in the internal market with minimum change, to a full rupture, a threat more than an opportunity. All that is certain is that the UK has resigned from the EU and will, barring some political revolution, be a third country from the end March next year. This makes any kind of forward planning difficult for all Irish businesses, not just for port companies.

In the meantime, there is no short-term likelihood of capacity bottlenecks at the Irish ports and management would be well advised to stick with current development plans for now. As for port access, work is under way on the M11 route serving Wexford and Rosslare, while the Limerick to Cork M20 motorway has been restored to the road investment programme. Until the fog clears, it would be a gamble to alter plans for either port development or port access.

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