Intensifying food production where it is most sustainable and using hundreds of millions of hectares elsewhere to produce energy crops and grow trees are among the "rapid and far-reaching transitions" required on an "unprecedented scale" if the world is to limit damage from climate change.
This is one of the findings of the report on global warming of 1.5°C published this Monday by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), the UN group of scientists appointed by all governments in the world. Through the global 2015 Paris Agreement, nations agreed to keep global warming "well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels".
Different scenarios and choices are possible to achieve the 1.5°C objective. While they place the focus of action on carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels, scientists have found that agriculture would also play a key role.
Energy crops and forestry
This would include the conversion of up to 700m ha from food production to energy crops. This is equivalent to 80 times the size of the island of Ireland. Up to another 1bn ha may be planted or re-planted with forestry to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Meanwhile, "sustainable intensification" of food production on existing land would increase output through farming practices that limit adverse impacts on the environment.
IFA environment chair Thomas Cooney said this is what has been in happening in Ireland, where greenhouse gas emissions intensity per calorie of food output has dropped by 14% since 2005 levels and is projected to fall a further 11% by 2030. “Tomorrow’s budget provides a real opportunity for Government to make a clear statement of intent when it comes to supporting the delivery of zero carbon farm-scale and community-based renewables in rural Ireland,” Cooney said.
Reducing food waste, too, "could play an important role in land transitions towards 1.5°C", the scientists wrote.
Livestock
On livestock, the IPCC notes "increasing agreement that overall emissions from food systems could be reduced by targeting the demand for meat and other livestock products, particularly where consumption is higher than suggested by human health guidelines." However, "how the role of dietary shift could change in 1.5°C-consistent pathways is also not clear," the report adds.
Favouring intensive mixed crop-livestock systems is identified as a way forward. Technologies such as inhibitors and vaccinations to reduce methane emissions from cattle are also acknowledged, though the IPCC warns of "uncertainty" about their efficiency.
The group will publish a detailed report on climate change and land including agriculture next year.
Why target 1.5°C?
Global temperatures have increased nearly 1°C since pre-industrial levels. Current policy in many parts of the world including the EU aims to limit this to 2°C in the future. The IPCC has found that a 1.5°C target would offer more benefits, such as a 10cm decrease in the rise of sea levels or avoiding the extinction of coral reefs.
A decline in livestock of more 7.5-9.6% is expected at about 2°C warming
In agriculture, the 0.5°C gap would make a difference both in crops and livestock production. "A global warming of 2°C is projected to result in a greater reduction in global crop yields and global nutrition than a global warming of 1.5°C," the report found, especially in tropical areas.
Meanwhile, temperature levels affect feed quality and the spread of animal diseases including liver fluke, blue tongue and foot-and-mouth, the IPCC warned. "Globally, a decline in livestock of more 7.5-9.6% is expected at about 2°C warming, with associated economic losses of between $9.7 and $12.6 billion," the scientist wrote, citing a 2017 study.
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Intensifying food production where it is most sustainable and using hundreds of millions of hectares elsewhere to produce energy crops and grow trees are among the "rapid and far-reaching transitions" required on an "unprecedented scale" if the world is to limit damage from climate change.
This is one of the findings of the report on global warming of 1.5°C published this Monday by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), the UN group of scientists appointed by all governments in the world. Through the global 2015 Paris Agreement, nations agreed to keep global warming "well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels".
Different scenarios and choices are possible to achieve the 1.5°C objective. While they place the focus of action on carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels, scientists have found that agriculture would also play a key role.
Energy crops and forestry
This would include the conversion of up to 700m ha from food production to energy crops. This is equivalent to 80 times the size of the island of Ireland. Up to another 1bn ha may be planted or re-planted with forestry to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Meanwhile, "sustainable intensification" of food production on existing land would increase output through farming practices that limit adverse impacts on the environment.
IFA environment chair Thomas Cooney said this is what has been in happening in Ireland, where greenhouse gas emissions intensity per calorie of food output has dropped by 14% since 2005 levels and is projected to fall a further 11% by 2030. “Tomorrow’s budget provides a real opportunity for Government to make a clear statement of intent when it comes to supporting the delivery of zero carbon farm-scale and community-based renewables in rural Ireland,” Cooney said.
Reducing food waste, too, "could play an important role in land transitions towards 1.5°C", the scientists wrote.
Livestock
On livestock, the IPCC notes "increasing agreement that overall emissions from food systems could be reduced by targeting the demand for meat and other livestock products, particularly where consumption is higher than suggested by human health guidelines." However, "how the role of dietary shift could change in 1.5°C-consistent pathways is also not clear," the report adds.
Favouring intensive mixed crop-livestock systems is identified as a way forward. Technologies such as inhibitors and vaccinations to reduce methane emissions from cattle are also acknowledged, though the IPCC warns of "uncertainty" about their efficiency.
The group will publish a detailed report on climate change and land including agriculture next year.
Why target 1.5°C?
Global temperatures have increased nearly 1°C since pre-industrial levels. Current policy in many parts of the world including the EU aims to limit this to 2°C in the future. The IPCC has found that a 1.5°C target would offer more benefits, such as a 10cm decrease in the rise of sea levels or avoiding the extinction of coral reefs.
A decline in livestock of more 7.5-9.6% is expected at about 2°C warming
In agriculture, the 0.5°C gap would make a difference both in crops and livestock production. "A global warming of 2°C is projected to result in a greater reduction in global crop yields and global nutrition than a global warming of 1.5°C," the report found, especially in tropical areas.
Meanwhile, temperature levels affect feed quality and the spread of animal diseases including liver fluke, blue tongue and foot-and-mouth, the IPCC warned. "Globally, a decline in livestock of more 7.5-9.6% is expected at about 2°C warming, with associated economic losses of between $9.7 and $12.6 billion," the scientist wrote, citing a 2017 study.
Read more
Defining year ahead for farming and climate
Renewables industry wants to produce 70% of our power
Climate not the only factor in finding livestock balance
Watch: no climate tax on cattle
Expansion and climate targets are ‘incompatible’
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