The earthquake registered in New Zealand this week will have to be stronger to knock milk supplies. I’m told it will have little or no impact on milk supplies.

Milk production continues to grow as their season develops and reportedly supplies are up 6% relative to last year.

We all know it’s the New Zealand summer when the drought normally occurs, so watch this space.

Oil prices, which had been on the increase in early October, have come right back down later in the month and are back closer to $65 per barrel, whereas they had been over $80 per barrel earlier in the month. This won’t help demand in the Saudi states.

French, German and Dutch milk prices are all over 35c/litre for milk at 4.2% fat and 3.4% protein, so I would say it is safe to say they will continue to produce decent volumes of milk over the winter.

Yes, feed supply might be an issue, as they have been hit with drought also. However, these countries are accustomed to feeding, so I wouldn’t be pinning my hopes on any massive supply reduction.

US milk volumes continue to grow, despite all the moaning about milk price from America and the death of an industry.

On the product side, butter continues with its inexorable slide, with Dutch origin butter down for nine consecutive weeks now and over 20% from its summer peak of €5,550/t to €4,300 now. German origin butter is down 18% from €5,775 in August to €4,740 now, with French down 22% from €5,700 to €4,470.