How did Irish agri-food exports do in 2018?

Irish beef production is estimated to have risen by approximately 3% in 2018 to 633,000t. The total value of Irish beef exports in 2018, including offal, was just over €2.5bn - an increase in value of 1% on 2017.

Of this figure, 579,000t (excluding offal) of beef was exported at a value of €2.32bn – an increase of 2% year-on-year. The value of offal exports dropped to €230m, under pressure from lower prices, particularly in the Hong Kong market.

Exports of beef to the UK increased by 4% in 2018, with lower beef supplies in the UK leading to increased demand for imports. Access opened for Irish beef exports to China in April and over 1,000t of Irish beef has landed in China in 2018. The rate of growth in beef consumption in China and the limits of its own domestic production capacity make the prospects for significant gains in the values and volumes of Irish beef being shipped to China in 2019 strong. Irish cattle supplies rose by almost 60,000 head or 3.5% in 2018. The average weight of cow carcases declined from 317kg to 302kg in 2018. Steer and heifer carcases declined, on average, 8kg this year.

2019 outlook: prime cattle supplies look set to decline somewhat in 2019, although cow throughput is predicted to remain high.

There was a 27% rise in the number of live cattle exported in 2018 to 238,000 head, driven by calf exports. The value of live cattle exports is estimated to have fallen by 6% to €110m.

There was a 27% rise in the number of live cattle exported in 2018 to 238,000 head, driven by calf exports.

Calf exports totalled 156,000 head, representing an increase of 56% or 56,000 head. Exports of weanlings and stores declined slightly and these categories collectively accounted for exports of 57,000 head. Adult or finished cattle numbers decreased by 15% to around 25,000 head.

The decline in exports of weanlings last year is closely linked to economic and political instability in Turkey. More than 30,000 Irish cattle were sent to Turkey in 2017 but a significant weakening in the value of the Turkish lira detrimentally affected demand. Irish exports to Turkey declined by almost 60% to just 13,000 head in 2018.

Live pig exports declined marginally year-on-year to €49m. The main market is Northern Ireland and the trade is significantly exposed to potential Brexit effects. Live sheep exports declined by 50% on 2017 levels to approximately €2m and 25,000 head.

Irish sheepmeat production was up 3.6% in 2018 at 69,500t. Weather extremes and global prices saw the value of these exports rise by 15% to €315m.

The value of Irish sheep exports continues to grow despite pressure on volumes. Bord Bia said this is due to the shift away from trading in carcases and into developing value-added primal products. In 2008, approximately 70% of Irish sheep exports were shipped as carcase, with the balance in primal format. By 2018, this ratio was inverted, with carcases accounting for approximately 30% and primal products 70%.

In 2008, approximately 70% of Irish sheep exports were shipped as carcase, with the balance in primal format. By 2018, this ratio was inverted, with carcases accounting for approximately 30% and primal products 70%.

2019 outlook: The implications of a hard Brexit will compound the logistical issues for Irish exporters of using the UK land bridge in the lead-up to two of the busiest weeks in the year, Easter and Ramadan, which fall within one week of each other this year.

In 2018, Irish milk output continued to increase but at lower rates than were expected due to weather conditions, with output estimated to be up by approximately 3%.

After a good year of milk prices in 2017, in 2018 milk producers experienced a 7% drop in output prices.

Exports to continental Europe were valued at €1.35bn, a 6% increase on last year. Exports to the UK were valued at €1.03bn, up 6% on 2017.

Cheese is Ireland’s largest dairy export in terms of volume, and exports in 2018 are valued at €800m, a 2% reduction on 2017, with a 4.5% reduction in volumes shipped.

Butter exports for the first time were worth more than €1bn in 2018 as prices stayed at near-record highs throughout the first three quarters of the year.

Demand for butter is not likely to change in the short term as consumers turn away from vegetable fats for perceived health reasons and market supply remains relatively tight.

The value of exports for specialised nutritional powders increased to €1.1bn in 2018, with China being the most successful market, taking 50% of the specialised nutritional powders. While volume was up 15%, the value of these exports was down by 35% to China and 17% globally.

2019 outlook: Global production volume increases are unlikely to match the growth in global demand in 2019 and this, in combination with relatively low stock levels on a global level, means the supply demand dynamic for dairy produce in 2019 is reasonably positive.

Edible horticulture and cereal exports were worth €208m in 2018, a reduction of 10% on 2017.

Mushroom exports are projected to be down 5% in volume compared to 2017 and slightly more in value. Producers cite volatility in sterling and uncertainty since the Brexit vote as reasons for the decline.

Mushroom exports are projected to be down 5% in volume compared to 2017 and slightly more in value. Producers cite volatility in sterling and uncertainty since the Brexit vote as reasons for the decline.

Despite a weak harvest in 2018, in which overall production of cereals was down 500,000t on 2017 production volumes, buoyant commodity prices for cereals led to a 10% increase in the value of cereal exports.

Expansion in Ireland’s pig breeding herd combined with ongoing improvements in efficiencies at farm level meant pigmeat production for 2018 was up 4% year-on-year at 306,000t.

Exports for 2018 are expected to have increased by almost 6% to 264,000t. However, significant downward pressure on prices this year is expected to leave the value of exports 6% lower at €666m for 2018.

Exports to China fell, with the value of these exports back to €59m, dropping from €93m in 2017.

2019 outlook: Brexit poses an undeniable challenge to the Irish pigmeat industry, both in terms of potential tariff and non-tariff barriers as well as currency exposure. With 56% of pigmeat exports from primary and secondary processors currently shipped to the UK, and 99% of live exports, this risk is significant.

Irish poultry production is expected have increased by around 3% to almost 157,000t in 2018 compared to 2017 – the highest production every recorded for Ireland.

Irish poultry production is expected have increased by around 3% to almost 157,000t in 2018 compared to 2017 – the highest production every recorded for Ireland.

Poultry exports rose 8% in 2018 to €316m, supported by rising global demand for white meat and improved volumes of Irish production.

2019 outlook: Irish production is set to increase further next year as demand for chicken continues to benefit from Irish consumers making more convenient lifestyle choices.

It is likely that the number of birds processed in Ireland will reach a record-breaking 100m during 2019 as producers continue to invest in new and existing facilities within the sector.