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Ireland’s current TB controls, which includes badger vaccination, would only see TB eradicated by 2079 at the earliest, the Joint Oireactas Committee on Agriculture heard on Tuesday.
UCD professor at the Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Simon More told the committee that the current toolbox of controls is not enough to eradicate the disease by 2030, as is the Department of Agriculture’s aim.
Current controls
When asked if Ireland could eradicate TB given the current controls along with badger vaccination, Prof More said that if we continue with all the current controls, we are looking at a time to eradicate TB of 60 to 90 years.
“We cannot guarantee that herds are free [of TB], there are low-risk and high-risk herds. The two main drivers for persistent risk are infection in the locality and infection in the herd.”
We’re not clearing all infection from herds at derestriction
He said infection in animals is not 100% detected using current tests, that animals which are infected are not testing positive.
Prof More said that a Cambridge study using British data found that between 10% and 25% of herds at release, once they are free to trade again after being locked up, still have infected animals.
“We’re not clearing all infection from herds at derestriction,” he said.
“Technically, we do not have the tools that will provide us with a 100% guarantee of freedom [from TB]. Legislation in the EU says that herds as soon as they have two clear tests are free to trade – but that isn’t sufficient to mitigate risk,” he said.
He also said that in relation to badger vaccinations, the more badgers in higher densities the more challenging it is for the vaccine to work.
“We’re at a critical decision point,” he said.
Risk-based trading
When it comes to risk-based trading - only allowing high-risk herds trade with the equivalent or higher risk herds and low-risk with low-risk herds - Prof More gave the example of what happened in Australia.
“For herds to move from point of de-risk – it’s four months here, it’s eight years in Australia - how do we reconcile that with commerce?
"The only method available internationally is the risk-based approach… that gave us time to gain increased confidence that they are free [of TB].
“The approach of the high-risk herds is that they are treated very intensely to reduce risk. It allows trade as much as possible, while reducing the risk of transferring TB from high-risk herds to low-risk herds.
“The whole of Australia was under risk-based training,” he said.
Pie in the sky
When asked by committee chair Pat Deering if it was “pie in the sky” to think Ireland could eradicate TB by 2030, Prof More said it would be a huge ask.
“If we put everything in place that I’m suggesting (including risk-based trading), we would be getting close. But the problem is the tail will always be very long.
“My Australian colleagues thought it was important to say that around the tail [when eradication was close], once we knew a farm had TB we [would] depopulate immediately.
"The issue became more draconian the closer it [Australia] got [to eradication]. That’s what we would need to do by 2030,” he said.
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