Global meat prices are set to soar in 2019 as China faces a massive 10m tonne shortfall in its meat supply this year.

The world’s most populous country consumed close to 185m tonnes of animal protein in 2018 between pork, poultry, seafood, sheepmeat, beef and eggs.

However, China’s pig herd has been decimated by African Swine Fever (ASF), with 200m pigs now infected. Chinese pork production is expected to collapse by as much as 35% this year to 38m tonnes.

Dutch lender Rabobank is forecasting a 10m tonne shortfall in meat supplies in China for 2019.

It expects global meat exporters to redirect supplies to China in a bid to fill the deficit.

Shortfalls

This will create unexpected shortfalls in other markets and ultimately drive meat prices higher this year.

China is already ramping up its meat imports in response to its meat shortfall.

For the first two months of 2019, Chinese beef imports are up 55% year on year to just over 210,000t.

Last week, Liffey Meats became the seventh Irish beef factory to secure approval to export frozen beef to China.

It joins ABP Clones, Donegal Meat Processors (Foyle Meats), Slaney, ABP Nenagh; Kepak Clonee and Dawn Meats Charleville in the list of approved plants.

Minister for Agriculture Michael Creed said: “The geographic spread of these plants, with knock-on benefits to our farmers all across the country, is notable.

“My focus is now on getting additional beef plants approved and I will also try to progress sheepmeat access to China as part of the trade mission there next month,” he said.

China is now Ireland’s fifth-largest export market, worth €795m in 2018. Beef exports of 1,400t were worth €2.8m last year.