Chinese pork imports and prices are forecast to rise by 40% this year, according to official sources in the country.

The new China Agricultural Outlook (2019-28) published by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs forecasts that pork imports will reach 1.7m tonnes this year and increase again to 2.1m tonnes next year, according to China Daily.

Prices will continue to rise for the next two years, fastest in the second half of this year, the forecast adds. Increased supply is expected to come mostly from the EU, North America and Brazil.

African swine fever

Increased demand for imported pork results from over 120 reported African swine fever outbreaks on Chinese pig farms, which have to over 1m pigs being culled, according to official reports.

However, sources quoted by the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post, say actual figures could be higher.

The Chinese authorities expect domestic pork production to fall by 6.7% in 2019 to just over 50m tonnes this year, before reducing again to 46m tonnes in 2020.

However, Rabobank has forecast Chinese output to drop by 35% to 38m tonnes this year alone.

"Despite the progress made in containment, China still faces difficult challenges in eliminating the disease," China Daily reported, quoting a Ministry of Agriculture source.

Irish prices

IFA pig chair Tom Hogan said on Tuesday that rising Chinese demand had already lifted market conditions, but accused factories of lagging behind in applying corresponding price increases.

The IFA held a pig crisis meeting on 8 April.

“Following this meeting, the IFA organised delegations of suppliers to meet their processors last week and demand a fully justified 10c/kg increase in the Irish pig price up to €1.60c/kg. Factories responded with a 4c/kg increase, which is not enough given the market conditions and export demand coming from buyers serving the Chinese market,” Hogan said.

Read more

Global meat prices to soar as Chinese shortage bites

Threat of African Swine Fever laid bare