Despite the upward trend in milk prices reported last week from big European player Friesland Campina, the predictions for EU milk supply for the summer are expected to mirror 2018 volumes.

Elsewhere, milk supply is also downward, as we have been predicting for a few weeks. The May supply figures are yet to be published for New Zealand or the US, but both are expected to be down or on par with last year. New Zealand milk supply has been down 8% for the last two months (March and April), with similar predicted for May (the last month of worthwhile production) in New Zealand.

In the US, while milk price is up over 20% on the same time in 2018, April supply was only on par with last year (2018).

The US farmgate price is the equivalent of 34.7c/litre. The fact is that many US dairy farmers have been getting 33c/litre ex-VAT since October last year, based on the historical numbers.

Back home, the IFA suggested this week that all indicators they have been monitoring for the last couple of months have returned more than the main Irish co-ops have been paying.

IFA chair Tom Phelan said: “The May Ornua PPI, which tracks the products and prices traded for the month in question and is therefore very representative of Irish co-ops’ activity, at 30.45c/l + VAT, is only matched or bettered by the four west Cork co-ops. Since April, with co-ops cutting prices and the Ornua PPI increasing by 1.4 points, the gap between co-op payouts and the Ornua index has in fact widened.”