The newly elected European Parliament will be a key battleground to fight back against the proposed trade deal agreed between the European Commission and negotiators from four South American countries in the Mercosur bloc, Jean-Pierre Fleury, beef chair of the EU-wide farming organisation Copa-Cogeca, told the Irish Farmers Journal.

But first, Fleury said farmers would oppose the formalisation of the agreement in principle. "We will fight this every step of the way," he said.

This is about defending democracy

As EU heads of government gather this Sunday to try and agree on a new European Commission president arising from the result of the recent European election, the beef farmer questioned whether Jean-Claude Juncker's successor would have the authority to carry the proposed deal further. "This is about defending democracy," he said.

The deal will then go to heads of government in the European Council. Frenchman Fleury said his country's president Emmanuel Macron had described the Mercosur agreement as "a good deal" – but he said there could still be reservations, as expressed in a letter signed by leaders including Macron and An Taoiseach Leo Varadkar last week outlining beef concerns.

The trade agreement will also require sign-off from the European Parliament. "Everyone who has talked about environment, animal welfare, climate – we will see where they stand. We will watch them closely," Fleury said.

Quota

Within the 99,000t of extra beef allowed into the EU at a reduced duty rate, Fleury said 45% would be frozen and 55% fresh. Details yet to be clarified include the type of cuts allowed within each category, and any overlap with the existing so-called Hilton duty-free quota.

He warned that South American exporters had proven their ability to send more volumes of beef than existing tariff-rate quotas, by calculating the average cost across shipments benefiting from reduced duties and those hit by full tariffs while still making an overall profit over their low production costs.

Latin America has been shipping 40% above quotas

"On average Latin America has been shipping 40% above quotas and Brazil alone 80% more," said Fleury. "By cutting the rate to 7.5% we're giving them a window of opportunity and you should expect at least 40% to be added to the 99,000t."

This, combined with other trade deals with Canada and Mexico, prospective negotiations with New Zealand and Australia, and the recent agreement on non-hormone beef imports from the US, can only mean an equivalent reduction in EU beef production, the farm leader said.

Restructuring

"I expect the European Commission to make proposals on the way we are going to adapt and restructure," he said in reference to the €1bn compensation on offer from Brussels. He added that this would affect permanent pastures and biodiversity in Europe: "We're not going to keep the pastures without the cows."

Meanwhile, the food standards aspect of the deal are being signed off at a time when EU veterinary inspectors are not finished investigations relating to last year's "weak flesh" meat fraud scandal in Brazil, Fleury warned.

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