Beef price update: June AIM figures show steadying in national cattle herd

The latest Department of Agriculture Animal Identification and Movement (AIM) figures for 1 June 2019 show a steadying of the national cattle herd after several months of decline.

The number of beef-bred animals at 4.33m head recorded a reduction of 107,001, while the dairy herd of approximately 2.93m head represented a reduction of 31,412 on 1 June 2018.

The reduction in the national herd is similar to the most recent analysis carried on 1 May 2019 figures, showing a steadying in the national herd.

Delving deeper into the figures listed in Table 1 below, there is a significant tightening in numbers in the zero- to 18-month age bracket.

This is driven by higher live exports and a continued decline in the suckler herd, with over 40,000 fewer suckler cows on farms in the 12 month period.

Looking at figures which will have more of an immediate influence on the beef trade, there was still over 20,000 additional head of beef-sired stock in the 24- to 30-month age bracket as of 1 June.

But as Table 2 below shows, a large part of this surplus was cancelled out by over 18,000 fewer dairy-sired males in the 18- to 30-month bracket.

Table 2 also shows a marked tightening in numbers coming down the line, with over 45,000 fewer dairy-sired males in the zero- to 18-month age category.

This again is being driven by higher live exports of calves this season and last year.

Growth in the national dairy herd has slowed, but is still advancing, with over 25,000 extra dairy cows on farms on 0 June 2019 versus 1 June 2018.

Throughput drive

Meanwhile, getting back to this week’s kill, factories have been busy over the weekend in trying to compensate for lower numbers processed last week.

A small number of plants operated at a low capacity on Saturday, while all plants are operating at maximum capacity on Monday.

Plants are also keeping lairages full to have sufficient numbers on hand for Tuesday’s kill.

Factory agents are slow to quote for later in the week, citing the outcome of Monday’s beef industry meeting as the reason.

Quotes are largely unchanged.

Many suppliers presenting cattle for Monday and Tuesday’s kill are regular suppliers who, in many cases, are capable of negotiating an extra 5c/kg from the market.

This leaves steers, in general, ranging from a base price of €3.50/kg to €3.55/kg, with heifers ranging from €3.55/kg to €3.60/kg.

Young bulls are unchanged, with bulls less than 16 months ranging from a base of €3.45/kg to €3.50/kg in the main, with top prices deals of €3.55/kg completed.

Bulls aged over 16 months but less than 24 months are trading from €3.45/kg to €3.55/kg for R grades, with O grades from €3.50/kg to €3.60/kg.

O grading bull prices are largely dictated by quality, numbers on offer and the producer-processor relationship, with prices ranging anywhere from €3.15/kg for plainer bulls to a top of €3.30/kg to €3.35/kg.

Overage bulls are selling back to €3.00/kg and under.

Demand for cows is firm. P+3 grading cows range from €2.70/kg all the way to €2.85/kg to €2.90/kg.

O grading cows range from €2.90/kg to €3.05/kg, while R grades range, in general, from €3.15/kg to €3.25/kg.