Brexit will hit everyone

The Sunday Times report shows that the UK civil service expects serious consequences for general society if the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

Phelim O'Neill

19 August 2019

While Ireland exports vast quantities of chilled meat and dairy to the UK, huge quantities of ambient foods from breakfast cereals to biscuits are imported from the UK

The latest inside report on the consequences of a no-deal Brexit published in yesterday’s Sunday Times crystallises what Brexit would look like to everyday life in the UK. Much of it could also include Ireland, given the fact that not only do we export huge quantities of our agri food to that market, we also import vast quantities of the products that fill our supermarket shelves from the UK.

The latest inside report on the consequences of a no-deal Brexit published in yesterday’s Sunday Times crystallises what Brexit would look like to everyday life in the UK.

Much of it could also include Ireland, given the fact that not only do we export huge quantities of our agri food to that market, we also import vast quantities of the products that fill our supermarket shelves from the UK.

Everyday products like breakfast cereal, jams and biscuits, in fact most ambient food products come from the UK.

Hard border

The issue of a hard border is also a reality, hence the push for the backstop that would allow Northern Ireland (NI) to maintain an effective membership of the single market, though with the consequence of checks on produce coming into NI from the rest of the UK which is so politically controversial.

In practice, a no-deal Brexit will cause a serious disruption to everyday life, as every report on the issue has revealed.

That is why there is likely to be a serious push back by those opposed to Brexit in the UK parliament to prevent it happening, but, at this point, there is no certainty they can.

Sticking point

The sticking point is what is now commonly referred to as the Irish backstop, though at present it is a UK-wide backstop that has been agreed between the EU and UK government but failed to get the support of parliament.

The new prime minister has been blunt in his demand for its removal or else it is a no-deal departure.

Irrespective of the attempt to discredit the Sunday Times leaked report, it is clear that the UK civil service is concerned by what no-deal might lead to.

NI support for backstop

The Sunday Times also carried an interesting opinion poll on the North in which almost 60% of respondents supported alignment with the EU in practice with the backstop, with just under 40% opposed.

The backstop had widespread support in farming and business and this opinion poll may give politicians enough cover to lessen their opposition to it.

No use to farmers

While an Irish-only backstop would solve the political problem in Brussels and Westminster if it had DUP acceptance, it would not help the Brexit problem for farmers.

The reality is that if Britain pushed ahead to open its market to all-comers for beef, it would devalue the market for both British and Irish farmers.

It would solve the problem for sheep farmers in NI, as they could continue sales south, but sheep producers in Britain would be left in limbo, which would bring its own political tensions.