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The Department of Agriculture has given a first glimpse of what Irish farm payments could look like post-2021 under the next CAP.
It has taken five different models and applied them to direct payments for 125,509 farmers who held entitlements on 1 October 2018. These entitlements had a total value of €1.17bn and equated to an average payment of €9,385 on a claimed area of 36.3ha.
There are three variables across the five models (see table):
1 The budget for eco-schemes.
2 The limit on payments.
3 The target for convergence.
In the next CAP, the Basic Payment Scheme (BPS) will be replaced by the Basic Income Support for Sustainability (BISS) and Greening by eco-schemes.
For most farmers, the biggest change will be the removal of Greening, which makes up 30% of their entitlements. For the average entitlement valued at €265/ha, it will mean a cut of €80/ha.
Eco-schemes will be voluntary in the next CAP. However, if farmers choose not to take part, they will lose a significant portion of their direct payment.
If a farmer on the average payment of €9,385 does not opt in to eco-schemes, they could lose between €2,211 and €3,161. If they do participate, the reduction would range from €297 to €373.
The difference in the average payment across the five models is minimal if farmers opt in to eco-schemes. Just €79 separates the model with the highest average payment of €9,091 and the lowest of €9,012. However, the gap widens to €940 when a farmer does not take part in an eco-scheme.
The biggest change across the models comes in the value of entitlements as a result of flattening. In 2019, entitlements range from a minimum of €159 to a maximum of €700. By 2026, the range will narrow significantly across all five models (see table).
The Department has cautioned that its models are not forecasts but rather an indication of potential trends. Much of the next CAP is yet to be decided and the outcome of EU budget negotiations will have a major impact.
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