Beef prices: an increase, but at a slow rate

The beef trade has recorded minimal upward movement in price over the last week.

Steer and heifer quotes have increased by an average of 5c/kg, with steers typically trading from a base of €3.50/kg while the average heifer price is 5c/kg higher at a base of €3.55/kg. These quotes represent a 10c/kg rise in some plants but this has occurred from a lower starting point.

There are small numbers of steers moving at a 5c/kg higher base. Likewise, heifers trading at the top of the market in select plants have moved on to a base of €3.60/kg. Foyle Meats remains at the head of prices and is reported as continuing to offer a 10c/kg bonus on cattle eligible for the Chinese market and hitting desired carcase weights between 300kg and 380kg.

Factories remain anxious to maximise throughput, as reflected in last week’s kill being recorded at 39,965, head but are reluctant to increase prices further. The young bull kill and cow kill increased by 341 head and 291 head, respectively, on the previous week but these increases were cancelled out by steer throughput falling 799 head and 115 fewer heifers being processed.

There is more bite for cows and prices have hardened as a result. P+3 grading cows are trading in the main from €2.55/kg to €2.70/kg, with O grades anywhere from €2.70/kg to in excess of €2.90/kg. Likewise, R grading cows vary greatly, with prices averaging around the €3/kg mark but rising at least 10c/kg to 15c/kg higher for young fleshed cows. The mart trade is a good alternative outlet for top-quality cows.

A wider differential has also opened up in bull prices. R grades range on average from €3.45/kg to €3.50/kg but €3.40/kg and lower is being offered in a small number of plants. U grades range in general from €3.50/kg to €3.55/kg but as high as €3.60/kg has been paid for specialist finishers. O grading bulls meanwhile are trading anywhere from €3.15/kg to €3.35/kg, depending on numbers on offer, the quality and carcase weight of bulls and whether they are a small part of a larger consignment of better-quality bulls.

Northern buyers are active for top-quality young cows and heifers with numbers crossing the border on a weekly basis steady at last week’s figure of 352 head. Numbers exported north for direct slaughter for the year to date are 89% higher at 12,618 head.

The Northern trade is solid, with returns for R3 grading steers reported as averaging in the region of £3.35/kg. This is the equivalent of €3.97/kg at the stronger sterling exchange rate of 84.2p to the euro and €4.19/kg including VAT at 5.4%. AHDB reports average steer prices 5p/kg higher, with heifers similar to the Northern average of £3.35/kg (€4.23/kg incl VAT).

The Brazilian beef price is reported as falling sharply by 27c/kg to €3.00/kg on the back of turbulence in the Chinese market. It should not affect European prices, which did not benefit from the recent upward surge in the trade.

UK beef outlook

The AHDB UK cattle outlook for 2020 points to the prime cattle slaughter reducing 3% to 1.96m head while in turn production is forecast to fall 4% to 869,100t. The report highlights beef exports falling 9% to 152,000t as a result and imports rising 5% to 385,000t. Meanwhile, imports fell 23% to 55,200t in quarter three of 2019. Irish exports underpinned this reduction, falling 16% year-on-year on the back of beef factory protests. The report also lists shipments from Germany, Poland and Netherlands reducing on 2018 levels. Worryingly, consumption in 2019 is forecast to fall by a massive 89,000t on 2018 levels to 1.1mt.