“African swine fever is a lot bigger than many people perceive it to be. It’s still the biggest game changer we have seen or likely will see in our lifetime. It’s completely unprecedented and has shifted supply chains of every meat”.

These were the opening comments from Justin Sherrard of Rabobank at the Bord Bia market seminar. The production record in 2019 stands apart from anything that has been seen since 1961.

Chinese pork production will likely finish up down 25% in 2019, with an expected reduction of 15% being seen in 2020. Vietnam is expected to be down 10% in 2020, along with a 5% reduction in the Philipines as a result of ASF.

Beef outlook

Speaking on global beef production, Sherrard said that the global beef supply was tightening, with Brazil the only country in the world expected to see growth in production in 2020. Almost all other countries will hold steady or decline. However, while this could be perceived as good news for Ireland as an exporting country, global beef consumption is also expected to decline further in 2020. Poultry is its main competitor as it is offering more to consumers in terms of price, convenience and flexibility.

Pork outlook

Global pork supply falls will be driven by ASF losses in China and Asia. Everywhere else in the world, pork production will increase, albiet at a slower rate than originally thought. We will likely see a 4% growth in the USA and 1% growth in the EU for 2020.

Strong prices will continue but overall there is a mood of caution.

While ASF has been an opportunity for Europe so far, it’s also a new threat

How long will it take for China to recover and what will happen when ASF hits Europe are just some of the questions that European pork producers are asking themselves.

Sherrard said that he would envisage high prices will continue for at least the first half of this year.

“While ASF has been an opportunity for Europe so far, it’s also a new threat. There have been a lot of new cases in Poland since 1 January, one just 20 km from the German border.

"The disease is there, vectors are around, and it will keep spreading around the world,” he said. For 2020 the total importable demand will be higher than exportable surpluses so high prices look set to continue.

Poultry

Looking at poultry, Sherrard said that production is growing everywhere, especially in China. Consistemt growth drivers and favourable feed prices will be supportive to more growth in 2020.

Sheepmeat

Production of sheepmeat is expected to remain stable. There is some growth forecast in Australia but this will be cancelled out by continued pressure on production in New Zealand. This pressure is stemming from a focus on reducing greenhouse emissions, with land conversions from sheep farming to forestry returning to levels seen a decade ago.

Alternative meats

Speaking on alternative proteins, Sherrard said: “Alternatives were poised for ongoing growth although some of the sparkle is fading. In Ireland, there are 5,000 people signed up to the vegan society, and 25,000 people signed up in the UK, but the amount of noise that these people make would have you believe there are a lot more people moving this way”.

Stay tuned to farmersjournal.ie for further updates during the day.

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