The next government will shape the future of agriculture for decades

There have been numerous election promises made over the past three weeks in order to attract the rural vote. Some are significant, particularly in terms of commitments to underpin a shortfall in the CAP budget, introduce enhanced suckler payments and increase payments under the ANC scheme. But farmers and rural communities should look beyond them all.

The real measure of delivery of the next government will be the extent to which it can protect the interests of Irish agriculture in the face of Brexit, CAP reform and climate change. Failure to do so will not only shape the future direction of the sector over the term of the next government but for decades to come.

While the UK has left the EU, the exchanges this week between UK prime minister Boris Johnson and EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier reinforce the fact that the serious negotiations on the future economic relationship are just beginning. Clearly an incoming government will quickly find itself caught in the middle of what will be volatile and aggressive negotiations on the EU-UK trading relationship.

The legacy of the next government will be evident in Irish agriculture for many years to come

It will be critical, in whatever its makeup, that the next government has the political capacity to ensure Ireland and its economy is not used as a political pawn in these negotiations. Earlier this week, Boris Johnson warned that the UK would revert to World Trade Organisation (WTO) trade terms if a Canada-style free-trade agreement – which would not require the UK to follow EU laws – was not reached. Such an outcome would decimate trade between Ireland and Britain and cost our agri-food sector billions in tariffs.

Meanwhile, despite the upset of Brexit, the political agenda in Brussels continues to move forward. Attention is firmly focused on shaping future policy around the European Green Deal set out by European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen before Christmas. Part of this includes the development of a Farm to Fork strategy that will shape the next CAP.

EU agricultural strategy

Also this week, Lorcan Allen reports on the details contained in a draft plan for the new agricultural strategy seen by the Irish Farmers Journal.

The direction of travel is of major concern for Ireland. The introduction of new labelling rules that will further nationalise EU beef and dairy markets presents a significant threat in securing access to premium markets. The proposal for major changes to fertiliser and pesticide use alongside stricter welfare standards threatens productivity at farm level and could potentially have an impact on our live export markets.

Align this to the current proposal by the European Commission to cut the EU CAP budget by 5%, costing Irish farmers €100m per annum, and the extent of the challenge that lies ahead in Brussels for the next government quickly becomes clear.

It will be critical that Ireland is strategically positioned so that it can influence the direction of EU agricultural policy over the next five years.

Climate change

The challenge of protecting the interests of farmers, both in Brussels and Dublin, is made all the more difficult in the face of climate change. It is critical for farmers that the next government not only acknowledges the importance of agriculture to the rural economy but defends it accordingly. It is accepted that the understanding of the science has evolved in relation to the global warming potential of methane from livestock.

This, along with the fact that Ireland’s emissions profile is flawed on the basis it reflects emissions from food that is exported and oil that is imported, must be brought centre stage in the debate by the next government.

Also, farmers’ role in generating renewable energy and the potential for the sector to provide farmers with alternative land uses should be factored in.

Of course, it is a challenge to look beyond the immediate promise of additional supports and incentives that the various political parties are promising. But given the immediate challenges coming down the tracks, the focus of farmers and rural Ireland should be on selecting candidates that have the commitment and capacity to defend the sector’s interests both nationally and internationally.

The legacy of the next government will be evident in Irish agriculture for many years to come. It will shape the direction of our beef sector, determine the scope to further grow milk production and influence the economic viability of our tillage sector.

Jack Kennedy is travelling with Bord Bia on a trade mission to Algeria and Egypt. In this week's edition, he reports on the pressure to meet the demands of not only a growing consumer base but one that is demanding more western-style diets. Neither country has the water, soil fertility or infrastructure to respond. Therefore, with a combined population of over 140 million, both countries are looking to Ireland and other European countries.

In the context of climate change, the discussion on the future direction of agricultural policy and global food production is dominated by regions where food security is not an issue. The agenda is clearly very different in Algeria and Egypt.

It once again highlights the need to recognise that population growth is concentrated in regions of the world that do not have the capacity to feed themselves.

A failure of the EU and other major food-producing regions to respond to the growing food demand from these regions presents the risk of mass migration. Reports of Egyptian consumers queuing at 10pm every night with young children to secure cheese, meats and bread is in stark contrast to the availability of food in the EU.

It once again reinforces the extent to which CAP has delivered for EU consumers. Like other EU countries, the challenge for Ireland will be to respond to the growing demand from Algeria and Egypt while balancing environmental demands.

The Irish Farmers Journal’s factory price leagues show which factories return the highest prices for the different types of animals.

For the typical R=3= steer, the differential in 2019 was the equivalent of €60 on a 360kg carcase. In the case of bulls, the differentials were significantly higher, reflecting the extent to which some factories are more active for these animals. Farmers selling young bulls faced the toughest trade last year with prices running 40-50c/kg behind the EU average.

The impact of this on farm profitability is evident in this week's BETTER farm coverage, where, for the first time, farmers in the BETTER farm programme operating a steer beef system returned a higher margin than those with young bulls.

The leagues also show the extent to which farmers have paid for factory protests with the differential between the Irish and EU price during the second half 2019 significantly higher than previous years.

Our Focus supplement this week is in conjunction with the Fertilizer Association of Ireland. Once again we see reports that just 15% of grassland soils have optimal soil fertility, increasing to 20% in the case of tillage.

These nutrient imbalances erode farm profitability. The importance of K in ensuring optimal nitrogen use efficiency is clearly outlined here. A useful Q&A on using protected urea is available here.

Putting in place an annual fertilizer plan to spread straight N over the growing season will be important. But before this, the first step in improving both environmental and economic efficiency is to soil sample.

The announcement this week that a State aid package of €200m is to be made available to the agri-food sector has caused annoyance among some farmers.

However, its introduction now gives Government the necessary leverage to force beef factories to provide increased transparency on market returns. A condition of any aid package should include a requirement to provide detailed market information, including weekly throughput at individual factories.