European Commissioner for Trade Phil Hogan is outlining the difficulties confronting world trade in an address to the EU Trade Amidst Global Uncertainty trade seminar at the Royal Irish Academy in Dublin this morning (Friday). He spoke of the “significant turbulence and uncertainty” adding that that was before coronavirus started taking lumps out of global markets.
European Commissioner for Trade Phil Hogan is outlining the difficulties confronting world trade in an address to the EU Trade Amidst Global Uncertainty trade seminar at the Royal Irish Academy in Dublin this morning (Friday).
He spoke of the “significant turbulence and uncertainty” adding that that was before coronavirus started taking lumps out of global markets.
He began by highlighting China’s “exploiting gaps in the international rulebook….that makes a mockery of level playing fields and fair, rules-based trade” before turning to the US where it appeared he was choosing his words carefully.
He spoke of US as a “mixed picture” and the Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s ambition to reset (EU-US relations) and that he would be making his third trip of the year to Washington next week to try and progress what he described as a "mini deal".
Brexit
The Commissioner also shared his concerns about Brexit and expressed concern at “the decreasing focus on this issue here in Ireland.”
He spoke of having to “discount some of the rhetoric” and emphasised that the EU come to the negotiations that started this week on a future trading relationship aiming for a “negotiated agreement, arrived at in good faith, minimising damage for all sides.”
However, his message was clear, namely that the withdrawal agreement be “implemented in both spirit and letter,” and “if the UK wants to be taken seriously when forging other trade deals around the world, it has to honour its commitments”.
WTO
The Commissioner also spoke of his agreement with the US on the World Trade Organisation (WTO). He said the WTO has been in place 25 years this year and the Commissioner described it as “the anchor of the global, rules-based multilateral trading system.”
He agreed with the US on the WTO needing reform
However, he also said that he agreed with the US on the WTO needing reform, referencing the “need to achieve consensus around technology and the digital space, the climate crisis, security and migration,” and how he hoped to progress this in a speech in the US a couple of weeks from now.
What can the EU do?
In light of the challenges facing the EU, Hogan told the seminar that the EU response will be a “more geopolitical commission, asserting our interests more forcefully both at home and abroad”.
He referred to the trade deals the EU has negotiated and how these are used “as leverage to improve standards worldwide.”
The Commissioner also highlighted how the EU were leaders in climate action and the leader in implementing COP 21 targets and this was “turbo charged” by the new Commission President’s Green Deal policy.
The Commissioner may be still relatively new to the trade portfolio but given his previous experience as agriculture commissioner, he won’t have found any surprises.
In his address, he presented an excellent analysis of the problems facing global trade and application of rules as well as identifying the need for a fully functioning WTO that is able to enforce the rules.
Lofty ambitions won't mean much to Irish farmers who have had the burden of meagre incomes
He also correctly identified the EU as the global leader in playing by the rules and his aspiration for raising global standards to this level is worthy.
What matters to Irish farmers?
These lofty ambitions, however, won’t mean much to Irish farmers who have had the burden of meagre incomes, especially in beef and sheep, for a prolonged period.
What will matter to them in assessing the performance of the Commissioner is can he secure the lifting of the 25% tariff on Irish dairy imports to the USA or prevent the EU market being flooded with cheap beef from a country that increased production through rainforest clearance and whose president has little regard for COP 21 and the climate change agenda.
The Commissioner referred to the EU having to use some ground hurling in getting the other major trade powers to align with EU standards.
The problem is that China and the presidents of the US and Brazil have shown little regard for any rules and have little interest in playing the game as it should be played.
It will be the Commissioner's ability to get enforceable global rules imposed and EU import and export markets protected that will determine his success in the eyes of Irish agriculture.
EU rules and standards for climate, the environment and trade are noble but are a fast-track for the decline of Irish farming if global competitors are not operating on the same track.
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