There’s understandably been a huge amount of farmer reaction to the announcement by Glanbia Ireland that it will essentially place a cap on milk production growth from its suppliers over the coming years.

Many dairy farmers who supply Glanbia Ireland feel let down having invested significantly over recent years to grow their farm businesses and increase cow numbers. Yet the row between Glanbia Ireland and its farmer suppliers is already moot given what’s contained in the Government’s revised Climate Action Bill, which will be published on Tuesday evening.

Under this new climate bill, Irish agriculture is set for a decade of pain where legally binding targets to reduce emissions in the sector are going to place a major handbrake on future expansion by any farmer, let alone Glanbia Ireland suppliers.

Slashing emissions

As part of the bill, Ireland will need to slash its carbon emissions in half by 2030 and to reach net zero by 2050. To achieve this, every sector of the Irish economy, including agriculture, will have to sign up to legally binding carbon budgets to reduce emissions by an agreed target over the next decade.

The Government will introduce two legally binding carbon budgets this decade, the first of which will cover the period 2021 to 2025. These climate budgets will be agreed by the new Climate Change Advisory Council and the relevant government departments.

Under these carbon budgets, Irish agriculture is going to have to find a way to dramatically reduce its emissions, with 2018 being set as the reference year. If the sector doesn’t meet its targets over the coming decade, it will be open to legal challenge in the courts.

Difficulties

No matter how you look at it, this is a very difficult bill for Irish agriculture. These is no separate target for methane in this Climate Bill, meaning the targets for methane produced by livestock will be just as stringent for any other greenhouse gas or sector.

The programme for government agreed by Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Green Party already commits for an average reduction in emissions of at least 7% every year for the next decade.

This means Irish agriculture is likely going to have to cut its emissions by more than 1m tonnes of CO2 equivalent every year for the next five years under its carbon budget. With methane from livestock accounting for almost 60% of agricultural emissions, this is going to place major pressure on cattle numbers in this country.

It almost certainly means an end to increasing herd sizes and could potentially mean a reduction of cattle numbers is on the cards, unless new technologies such as methane inhibiting feed additives arrive on the market very soon.

The Climate Action Bill does contain a reference to “biogenic methane” and evolving science in this area, which is a nod towards the recent work by climate scientist Myles Allen. However, until this new science on biogenic methane is adopted by the UN’s climate change body, the IPCC, it makes little difference to how methane from livestock is treated compared to any other greenhouse gas.

In all likelihood, the idea of farmers increasing cattle numbers over the coming years looks dead in the water

Potential culling

The Irish Farmers Journal understands there is widespread acknowledgement at senior levels of Government that a 7% annual decline in emissions from agriculture is not possible without a wholesale cull of livestock numbers.

As such, there is headroom in this bill for agriculture to reduce emissions by a lower amount than other sectors, but only if other sectors of the economy are able to reduce emissions by more than 7% to make up for the slack in farming.

Reduction

Even if the emissions reduction target for agriculture was halved to just 3.5% it will still mean significant pain for the sector, although it is achievable.

So while the unfolding situation with Glanbia Ireland has caught farmers' attention this week, the reality is that every Irish farmer is now facing a similar constraint on growth for the coming decade.

In all likelihood, the idea of farmers increasing cattle numbers over the coming years looks dead in the water. Holding on to the existing numbers they have will be the main challenge.