The latest CSO figures show that Irish imports from Britain of food and live animals for March 2021 were down at €151m compared with €288m for the same period last year.

When the figures for the first quarter are compared, imports of food and live animals are down from €776m last year to €306m for the first quarter of 2021, less than half.

Exports are also lower for the first quarter in 2021 compared with last year at €648m compared with €871m for the same period in 2020.

Trade with Northern Ireland (NI), on the other hand, has increased in the first quarter compared with last year. The figures for all products traded show imports from NI at €748m in the first quarter this year compared with €519m for the same period last year.

Similarly with exports, the value for sales to NI in the first quarter were €682m, compared with €557for the same period last year.

Reason for changes

Brexit has had an immediate impact on trade between Britain and the EU with the addition of the requirement for veterinary certification and inspections. This hasn’t been replicated on trade between the EU and Britain because the UK government hasn’t yet introduced sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) controls on goods of animal and plant origin at their borders.

This will commence in October this year and inspections will begin in January 2022.

It would also be wrong to read too much into the figures with the first quarter because there was a good deal of stockpiling of product both ways ahead of the UK leaving the single market on 31 December 2020. Those stocks will have been largely used by the end of March but thereafter the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic may well reflect in a distortion of trade figures.

Future developments

Dealing with the UK introduction of SPS checks from the 1 October will be a huge challenge for Irish exporters and at best will be a bureaucratic and costly administrative procedure. Most sectors of Irish agriculture have well diversified markets, the exception being the beef industry.

As well as the cost of border controls in the UK, there remains the real possibility of significant if not complete tariff and quota free access to the UK market for Australia and New Zealand in a trade deal.

Farm leaders have been warning recently of this risk that this is to British farmers but arguably it is an even bigger risk to Irish farmers

This is at an advanced stage of negotiation and unsurprisingly agriculture is the final sticking point. Farm leaders have been warning recently of this risk that this is to British farmers but arguably it is an even bigger risk to Irish farmers.

Access to the UK market for Australian and New Zealand produce would create direct competition for Irish exports. It would also increase the possibility of increase volumes of UK production targeting EU markets if the UK market was to become crowded and weak.

Therefore, Irish exports face not just the possibility of increased competition from Australia and New Zealand in the British market, they face the prospect of increased British competition in EU markets as well.