Climate emergency lands in rural Ireland

Rural Ireland and the agribusinesses that keep it going, the marts, the co-ops, the meat processors, all depend on a vibrant farming sector with farmers growing, changing, selling, breeding, and trading to generate income and make profit.

With emissions reduction targets coming into sharp focus in recent days, big questions are being asked. Are farmers going to be forced to reduce stock? Will big purchasing habits change?

What new technologies to reduce emissions will appear? Despite the fact that we now know the agricultural emissions reduction targets the reality is we don’t yet know the effect they will have at farm level.

However, in the last week it has become clear that it is going to take significant change to meet new carbon targets. Some are suggesting that we press pause on any change in stock numbers for the moment. How that will be implemented at farm level is not yet clear.

The target

So what has happened? Last Saturday we learned that the Government had agreed a 21% to 30% reduction in agricultural emissions by 2030. Under the climate act, this target will come into law as part of the deal to reduce overall national emissions by 51% by 2030. Other sectors have to reduce emissions also. Electricity by 70% to 80%, transport and home heating by 45% to 55%, and industry by 40% to 50%.

Some of these sectors have powerful and consolidated marketing arms and can pass some or all of the cost of new initiatives back to the consumer. Irish farmers as sole traders are largely dependent on global market prices and hence are more vulnerable. Typical agribusiness margins are also generally in low single digits.

When you boil this all down, essentially it’s about reducing 23m tonnes (mt) of agriculture carbon dioxide down to 16mt or 18mt

A lot of the discussion on climate up to now has been about cow numbers and reducing overall stock numbers. Yes, of course stock numbers are part of the equation to reducing emissions. However, its not all just about the numbers. When you boil this all down, essentially it’s about reducing 23m tonnes (mt) of agriculture carbon dioxide down to 16mt or 18mt (the 21% to 30% reduction). How you get there is not really in question – fewer stock, more efficient stock, less fertiliser, new additives etc.

This week, to get a better understanding of what is going on and what this all means, I talked to Teagasc director Frank O’Mara, ICBF’s Andrew Cromie, IFA president Tim Cullinan and ICMSA president Pat McCormack. Farmers and company directors need a vision and a plan for investment in businesses. There is little point in building or planning new dryers if dairy stock numbers are going back. There is little point in feed or fertiliser companies investing in new products if sales will be significantly reduced.

What can be done

The Teagasc director spells it out very clearly. The 23mt of carbon that farming generates will have to be reduced (see Figure 1 and Figure 2). He believes this will partly happen through a combination of what he calls the Teagasc Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) savings. These are the low-emission slurry spreading, protected urea, breeding gains etc which if used by farmers will all reduce emissions.

In total, these savings might come to 2mt. Then he suggests new technologies that we know are coming such as earlier slaughter, fertilisers and feed additives have the capacity to reduce emissions by another 1.5mt. That brings us about halfway in our overall industry target. The final leg of the journey is future technologies that have not yet been developed around feed additives that may be fed to cows in the future to reduce methane production or breeding cows that produce lower methane.

The herd

ICBF’s Andrew Cromie suggests while the national herd has stabilised in the last few years (see Figure 3). The total stock figure varies depending on what time of the year you look at it. Births, deaths, exports, imports all play a part in numbers that change every day.

If we look at June or December each year for the last five years we see a relatively stable 7.3m heads at peak in June down to 6.5m in December.

However, Cromie does say there are more dairy heifers in the pipeline that have the capacity to grow the dairy herd, and this reflects the survey intentions that milk processors gather also. Will these heifers be allowed join the milking herd? Now it looks like that depends on what happens in other sectors.

As suggested, will 2018 become a reference year for stock numbers? Will suckler cow numbers continue to decline? Will live exports continue?

Cromie is clear that there are technological developments that could turn the dial on the breeding front. Breeding cows that produce less methane might be a possibility, but to fast track something like that he suggests the first step would be to genotype the national herd. This would be a huge investment, maybe €150m in total but it could be staged in rollout, and maybe this is a starting point for the Government in terms of funding the transition. It has taken 20 years to get EBI where it is now. We need the next breeding response to climate change in the next five years.

IFA president Tim Cullinan suggests a stable herd is what we need right now. Without new research technologies he suggests growing stock numbers is not a runner. ICMSA president Pat McCormack suggests that we let growth continue and lets be flexible as new technologies emerge.

Both are clear this is a monumental week for Irish farming. It will bring huge change at farm level. Research needs to deliver big time.

The emissions reduction target is clear. How farmers and Irish agribusiness will respond will have to develop very quickly. New grant aid and schemes have been announced, however the detail on how they will work is not yet clear. The urgency to invest in new technologies is evident. Piecemeal investment that brings short-term change is no good now. We need significant investment that delivers at farm level long-term. Farmers need recognition for this investment at farm level so the models and science between Teagasc, the EPA, and other Government departments need to align. As Frank O’Mara says, we need a fast, whole of industry response to agriculture’s national challenge, much like what has happened nationally reacting to COVID-19 over the last two years.