A limit on dairy cows per farm, a limit on the volume produced per farm or the establishment of a greenhouse gas entitlement per farm are the three options under consideration by the Department of Agriculture to curtail expansion in the Irish dairy sector.

Speaking at the Food Vision dairy group held on Monday in Backweston, Co Kildare, Department Assistant Secretary General Sinead McPhillips reportedly said unless the Government-led think-tank could come up with and agree on solutions to reduce greenhouse gases from the sector, then the Department was going to introduce one of the three mandatory options.

It is also understood that the establishment of a greenhouse gas entitlement per farm is not yet ready for national roll-out, so the per-cow limit, effectively a stock numbers limit per farm, or the volume limit are the two most likely options under consideration.

Modelling

The Irish Farmers Journal understands that this type of modelling work has been completed to look at the effect of these options on stabilising and reducing greenhouse gases in an Irish scenario.

The move comes just four weeks since the chair of the group, former Teagasc director Gerry Boyle, said any measures under consideration by the group would be voluntary.

Minister for Agriculture Charlie McConalogue has asked for a detailed plan on how the dairy sector needs to react in the next number of weeks.

The Department announcement is likely to cause huge frustration among the farm organisations and the dairy industry which are taking part in the forum. Farm organisations are likely to challenge any new imposed limit on dairying on a practical and legal basis.

Fertiliser reduction

Also at the meeting, Department of Agriculture Inspector Dale Crammond presented details of a plan to further reduce chemical nitrogen usage from a projected 350,000t in 2022 down to 275,000t in 2025.

This would mean a 13% reduction in 2022, followed by a further 7% reduction in each of 2023, 2024 and 2025. This would involve replacing 65% of CAN (27% N) used on Irish farms with protected urea.

Teagasc options

Principal research officer with Teagasc Kevin Hanrahan presented details of a scenario that suggested the dairy herd would need to be reduced by 38% by 2030 if methane levels were to be reduced by 22% compared with 2018.

The modelling didn’t take into account any mitigation factors. Hanrahan had been requested by the chair to carry out simulation of the required restraint in dairy production and cow growth to achieve, firstly, stable methane levels versus 2018 and, secondly, a 22% reduction versus 2018.

War rages

The irony of the whole situation is the fact that a war is raging in Ukraine and Russia that could have devastating and huge potential consequences for Irish, EU and global food and energy reserves.

Meanwhile, a Government-led think-tank met to consider limiting the one sector of Irish farming that has a competitive advantage and a huge positive economic impact on rural Ireland.

More reports and analysis to follow.