Exclusive: cereal production cut forecast, but lower than expected

Cereal production of wheat, barley and oats, in Ireland could decline by 28,000t this year to 1.898m tonnes, Irish Farmers Journal analysis has found.

With industry figures showing that cereal area has declined this season by an estimated 10,000ha a big drop in production had been expected.

However, the analysis shows that the decline in output is not as low as had been expected.

The overall tillage area is estimated down by less than 2%. With a current fodder shortage, cereal production estimates will be important.

The drop of 28,000t from 2023, which was calculated using estimated crop area figures from Goldcrop from 11 June and forecast yields from a survey of agronomists carried out by the Irish Farmers Journal, is just over 520,000t behind 2022 production of 2.42m tonnes and over 300,000t behind our traditional average cereal production figure of 2.2m tonnes.

Spring barley crops look to be much better this season as crops were impacted by late sowing and drought after planting in 2023. Teagasc placed the average spring barley yield at 2.58t/ac in 2023.

Our survey forecasts an average yield of 2.75t/ac this year, with the lowest average at 2.5t/ac from any agronomist.

Given a decline in winter wheat area (-20%), winter barley area (-20%) and winter oats area (-30%) all of which produce higher yields than spring varieties, a big decline was expected. However, the improvement in weather for spring crops has made a big difference. Overall yield forecasts are up. Winter wheat is forecast to yield over 4t/ac, a very respectable yield given the poor sowing conditions last autumn and up on 2023’s average of 3.84t/ac.

Winter barley yield is also forecast up from last year at 3.65t/ac, compared to 3.52t/ac in 2023.

Analysis

Six per cent of the total area was taken out to calculate the eligible area. Teagasc takes out 5% in its harvest report. However, buffer zones have increased in recent years, so we used 6% in our figures.

Straw incorporation was estimated by the Irish Farmers Journal at approximately 46,000ha, down approximately 10,000ha on 2023.

This is based on an expected increased demand for straw and a decline in cereal area.

Straw

Winter crops generally produce a lot more straw than spring crops, so the decline in this area would expect to be noticed, along with the overall decline in cereal area of 10,000ha. Putting an average yield of 25 4X4 round bales/ha on those 10,000ha that would mean a decline in straw bales of 250,000. It should be noted total cereal area has declined by about 25,000ha in the past two years.

However, straw yields were poor in 2023 for many crops. Straw yield looks to be up this year. Spring barley crops which were very short have sprung up in recent weeks and look to have good crops of straw. Agronomists in the survey placed the average spring barley straw yield at seven bales/ac. In 2023, some farmers had as few as three bales/ac. See Table 2 for estimates on straw yields.

Participation in the Straw Incorporation Measure is also likely to decline. Some 56,700ha of cereal straw had been placed into the scheme last year.

With a decline in cereal area and what looks to be a good demand for straw, with reports of orders being made well in advance of harvest, less straw is likely to enter the scheme. However, the majority of oaten straw will be chopped, some poor winter cereal fields will be chopped and a certain percentage of all crops are likely to be chopped. We have estimated chopping down by approximately 10,700ha.

This brings straw production to an estimated 3.98m 4X4 round bales. If cereal area had been maintained from 2023 the number of bales was likely to be close to 4.25 million bales.

The Department of Agriculture had not released its crop area figures at the time of going to print.