Argentine beef exports are set to hit record levels of 860,000 tonnes in 2025 and could reach 1m tonnes in the years up to 2030, according to figures released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The USDA forecast comes amid growing concerns in Irish farming circles that a trade agreement between the EU and the South American trade bloc Mercosur seems increasingly likely.

There have been unconfirmed reports that the European Commission is considering plans to establish a fund to compensate sectors that are heavily affected by an EU-Mercosur trade deal.

If the Commission’s compensation package gets the green light, then the controversial trade agreement could be finalised by the two sides at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro on 18-19 November.

Opposition

Strident opposition by the farm organisations in Ireland and France to any trade deal with Mercosur - which includes Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia - has been motivated primarily by concerns that Europe’s lucrative beef market will be swamped by cheaper South American product.

Confirmation that Argentina’s beef exports are set for a major expansion will add to farmers’ fears regarding a Mercosur deal.

A combination of increased slaughterings, a collapsing currency and a sharp reduction in domestic consumption is expected to result in a 5% increase in beef sales off the Pampas next year.

Meat production is projected to hit around 3.2 million tonnes in 2025 - that is 2% higher than in 2024 - on the back of a modest lift in the herd size and slaughter figures increasing to 13.8m head. Stronger cattle numbers are forecast to hold well beyond 2025.

A significant drop in beef consumption by the meat-loving Argentinians will also feed into the higher export figures.

Domestic sales of beef among the country’s 45 million population have taken a serious hit in recent years due to the ongoing economic slump.

The government of maverick libertarian president Javier Milei, who took office in December, has rolled out austerity measures to reign in government spending and abandoned the freeze on beef prices.

However, soaring inflation, which reached 280% in May before dropping back to around 200%, has pushed half the Argentine population into poverty.

Beef consumption has dropped to the lowest levels since records began in 1914, according to a report from the Rosario Board of Trade.

Average per-capita beef consumption is expected to drop to 44.8kg this year - it was as high as 73kg in the past - as the population switches to cheaper poultry and pork.

Despite this fall in consumption, Argentinians remain the world’s biggest eaters of beef. They eat significantly more beef than the Americans (38kg) and Australians (27kg) and consume almost two-and-a-half times more than the average Irish person, who eats around 18kg.