Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil continue to dominate the political landscape among farmers, an eve-of-election Irish Farmers Journal survey has shown. Between them, the two main coalition partners account for 60% of farmers’ first preference votes, with Fine Gael on 37% and Fianna Fáil on 23%. This represents an increase for both parties on the support levels they gained in our last survey, taken in May, prior to the European and local elections.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil continue to dominate the political landscape among farmers, an eve-of-election Irish Farmers Journal survey has shown.
Between them, the two main coalition partners account for 60% of farmers’ first preference votes, with Fine Gael on 37% and Fianna Fáil on 23%. This represents an increase for both parties on the support levels they gained in our last survey, taken in May, prior to the European and local elections.
Fine Gael was on 34% then, so it has gained three percentage points over the last six months. It is the most popular party among dairy and tillage farmers and cattle finishers, and regionally the most popular in Leinster and Ulster.
It is a similar story for Fianna Fáil, as it polled 20% in May, and has picked up 3% more support.
It also fares best in Leinster and Ulster, and among cattle finishers and sheep farmers.
Independent Ireland
Independent Ireland has consolidated its position as the third most popular party among farmers.
The party gained 11% support on making its debut in our May survey, and sits on 10% this time, a drop of a single percentage point as it faces into its first general election.
It gained most support from suckler and sheep farmers, and by region in Connacht and Munster.
Sinn Féin may have rebounded in national opinion polls from its dismal performance in the local elections, but it has not gained traction among the 1,037 farmers surveyed.
In fact, the party has dropped from 6% in May’s survey to only 4% this week.
That represents Sinn Féin’s worst performance in any farmers’ poll or survey conducted for the Irish Farmers Journal since February 2011. It is a result sure to cause concern for the party leadership and for recently appointed agriculture spokesperson Martin Kenny.
Sinn Féin is most popular in Connacht and Ulster, and among suckler farmers.
Aontú, the party founded by Peadar Tóibín after he left Sinn Féin, is next, on 2%.
The Green Party is now only on 1%, a drop from 2% in May. The Social Democrats is also on 1%. The Labour Party didn’t receive enough support to even register a single percentage point of support in the survey.
That only adds up to 80%. Where are all the other votes going?
Independent candidates
Independent candidates account for 20% of the voting preferences, on top of the 10% pledged to Independent Ireland. It means one in five of the farmers surveyed intend to give their first preference vote to an independent candidate. This is good news for the likes of Mattie McGrath, Michael Lowry, Carol Nolan, Seán Canney and the Healy-Rae brothers.
Civil war politics
We also asked farmers for their second-preference party, which threw up some interesting results. Fianna Fáil fares best, on 28%, with Fine Gael on 24%.
This broadly suggests that the old “civil war” politics, where transfers between the two parties were uncommon, have been consigned to history, with many Fine Gael supporters giving their second preference to Fianna Fáil and vice versa.
Independents get more than a quarter of farmers’ second preferences, on 26%. Independent Ireland is on 9% and Sinn Féin is on 4%, a similar level of support in each case as for their first preference vote.
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