Grain Trends: tariffs and weather hitting markets

Grain prices were up across many markets this week. French wheat for December 2025 closed last Friday at €232.75/t and on Wednesday afternoon was at €236.75/t.

Maize also increased. For example, the French November price moved from €216/t on Friday to €218/t on Wednesday afternoon.

UK wheat increased slightly, but it was US wheat which jumped in price in recent days.

Chicago Board of Trade wheat for May was at 558c/bu on 24 January, moved to 574c/bu on 31 January and on Wednesday afternoon was at 591.75c/bu. Maize was also increasing in the US.

There are many things affecting markets at present. Weather still plays a role. Concern about US wheat crops continues in cold weather, with little snow cover.

This week, Reuters reported from farms in Argentina where drought is having a severe impact on crops. Corn and soybeans are both affected. In that report, Reuters spoke to an agro-climatologist who said that every week in February without rain could lead to five million tonnes being lost and that corn and soybean production could both be at 40m tonnes, back about 10m tonnes on last year.

The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) in the UK reported that markets rallied after import tariffs on Canada and Mexico were paused. French wheat futures for May increased by 1.5% and Chicago maize prices for May increased by 1.4% following the announcement.

Oilseed rape

Oilseed rape prices have recovered after a drop last week. Nearby prices had dipped, but the French November price had remained steady. On Wednesday afternoon, the November price sat at €491/t.

Market analysts are watching what happens with tariffs in Canada, as tariffs from the US could reduce the market for Canadian rapeseed (or canola as it’s known there).

The AHDB also reported that the US imports 96% of Canada’s rapeseed oil and 66% of its rapeseed meal, so it’s an important market.

Brazil is expected to have a large soybean harvest, which would offset losses in Argentina. Soybean markets often affect oilseed rape prices, as it is part of the oilseeds market.

Native prices

This week, spot prices remain steady. Spot wheat is reported to be trading over €245/t in some cases, while spot barley continues to be reported somewhere between €230 and €235/t. November prices are estimated about €5/t above this.

Maize ex-port has increased. It is now at approximately €250/t, up from €245/t last week, which may be a positive for native wheat and barley.