New Brazil beef export record forecast for 2025

The United States department of agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasts that Brazil’s beef exports will increase to 3.88m tonnes carcase weight equivalent (CWE) in 2025.

The USDA says that it is due to the combination of beef production, strong external demand, devalued Brazilian real and foreign competitors facing challenges.

Production is forecast to remain stable at 11.9m tonnes CWE, but a 2% decrease in domestic production due to inflation makes extra product available for export.

Markets

Brazil is particularly dependent on China as an outlet for beef exports, with almost half of total beef exports going to that market in 2024.

Concern was increased at the end of last year when China announced that it was opening a safeguard investigation on beef imports.

This followed a complaint by the China Animal Agriculture Association and nine regional animal associations that beef imports were damaging domestic livestock producers.

It should be noted that it isn’t just beef imports from Brazil that this applies to, but all beef imports.

After China, the next most important market for Brazil’s beef exports is the USA, which accounted for just under 400,000t CWE of beef exports in 2024.

Brazil has been the main user of a 65,000t quota, with a rate of duty at 4.4c/kg and the remainder of its beef exports subject to a 26.4% tariff. Given the aggressive US tariff policy recently, Brazil will be anxious about the possibility of additional tariffs.

Pork

Brazil is the fifth-largest pig producer in the world, according to USDA data, and the forecast for 2025 is an increase of 1% to 48.45m head.

For pork production, Brazil ranks number four in the world behind China, the EU and the US.

Production for 2025 is forecast to increase by 2% to 4.73m tonnes CWE, driven by lower feed costs and strong export demand.

Domestic consumption is expected to remain similar to last year at 3.1m tonnes CWE, with pork continuing to be the third-choice protein for consumers behind beef and chicken.

Pork exports for 2025 are forecast by the USDA to increase again, up 6% to 1.63m tonnes CWE. This follows an 8% increase in volume to 1.53m tonnes CWE in 2024 compared with 2023.

As with beef, China is the largest export market, taking 18.5% of all pork exports with a further 7.6% of exports going to Hong Kong. The next most important market is Philippines, which takes 18%, followed by Chile on 9.5% and Japan on 7.8%.

Chicken

Brazil is the second-largest chicken meat producer in the world after the US. The USDA FAS estimates that this will increase by 1% in 2025 to 15.1m tonnes, a new record high.

Export volumes are forecast to increase by 3% this year to 5m tonnes, which is one third of total production. The markets for Brazil’s chicken exports are well diversified, with China the largest at 11% of total exports.

The other top five destinations are UAE, Japan, Saudi Arabia and South Africa and these five destinations are forecast to account for 45% of Brazil’s chicken exports this year.

More recently, the Brazilian poultry association, which had forecast exports of 5.4m tonnes this year, suggested that this estimate could be conservative.

The strength of China and other Asian markets means that Brazilian exports aren’t currently competing with Irish exports in European markets.

However, given the current volatility with tariffs in the US, there is some risk that sales to that market could be disrupted for Brazilian beef.

On the other hand, if US beef entering China is carrying a high tariff, then that market could present an opportunity for Brazil to increase exports further.

Also, while the EU has fallen down the list as a priority market, any disruption in other markets could see it come back into play, especially with current market prices for beef.

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