The IFA has launched its strategy for the liquid milk sector called Milk Wise 2025, in which it outlines a number of issues it sees for the sector.

Despite stabilising last year, autumn calf births have declined and the number of winter and liquid milk producers has dropped to 1,800. The IFA is concerned that a shortage of liquid milk is developing.

President Joe Healy warned consumers may be facing into a shortage of liquid milk in winters to come.

“Farmers are being forced to reconsider their commitment to the liquid milk industry,” Healy said.

According to the National Milk Agency, some 26% of the liquid milk pool in the Republic of Ireland comes from Northern Ireland.

The strategy outlines one scenario which could emerge as a consequence of Brexit.

This is the possibility of no trade deal being put in place between the UK and the EU and “significant import tariffs being imposed on all milk imports from the UK into Ireland”. The strategy says this “would be a disastrous development for the entire sector”.

Crying wolf

However, director of Strathroy Dairies Cormac Cunningham told the Irish Farmers Journal that he believes there will be no shortage of milk, regardless of whether or not there is a hard Brexit.

“The IFA is crying wolf here,” Cunningham said. “They relaunch this strategy every 12 or 18 months saying there will be a shortage of liquid milk, but even at the lowest production month of the year we have more than double the volume of milk needed to cover all contracts.”

On Brexit, Cunningham said that he, like most other agri companies, is worried, but thinks that import tariffs into the UK could result in too much milk being available in Ireland, rather than not enough.

“If the Brits don’t want our cheddar or it’s too expensive to send it there, we could be awash with milk here.”