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Last year was very much divided into two halves, pigmeat and poultry specialist Peter Duggan told the Bord Bia outlook conference on Friday.
The first half was dominated by weak prices, which were 4% lower than the previous year. However, recovery in the second half of the year, driven by demand from China, saw prices recover and finish 2% ahead of the previous year overall.
China was very much the story for exports, taking 70,000t of Irish pigmeat or three-quarters of all our exports to countries outside the EU. The Chinese sow herd has fallen by 14m since 2013 as the industry was engulfed by a pollution scandal. It is estimated that 40% of China’s rivers are polluted and Chinese consumers lack confidence in domestic production, with food safety the key influencer in purchase decisions.
Prices
Despite this damaged reputation, the dramatic fall in supply doesn’t just create opportunities for exporters like Ireland. It has also driven pig prices in China to the equivalent of €3/kg, almost twice as much as Irish farmers are currently receiving (€1.55/kg).
Listen to an interview with Duggan in our podcast below:
Listen to "Pig and poultry prospects from Bord Bia seminar" on Spreaker.
Irish pig numbers rose in 2016 to 3.25m, an increase of over 100,000 on the previous year. However, for the EU overall, sow numbers were down by 350,000 in 2016 compared with the previous year. Germany leads the way in falling pig numbers, with its herd down almost a quarter over the past decade.
That should suggest that opportunities will continue in international markets for the Irish pigmeat industry. However, pig numbers are continuing to increase in the US, where sow numbers reached 6.1m in a total pig population of 71.5m. This is an increase of 4% on 2015, bringing the US pig herd to its highest since 1943. If growth continues in the US, it could lead to an overhang of pigmeat on international markets.
In the home market, sales of sausages and bacon increased in 2016, though fresh pork sales fell by almost 3%. Bord Bia will be introducing new advertising in the coming year to encourage pork consumption.
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