There is some talk of reduced European supply, but no solid numbers to back it up yet. Experts talk about reduced supply from France for January 2016, but finding figures to back it up is hard.

The latest quotations from the Milk Market Observatory show EU prices with a slight rise for the main dairy commodities. Butter was up slightly from $3,023 to $3,112/t. Whole milk powder (WMP) prices also increased slightly from $2,296 to $2,324/t. Cheddar also increased price, lifting from $3,059 to $3,105/t.

The quotes from Australia and New Zealand for butter and skim more or less held steady, while WMP and cheddar dropped. WMP dropped from $2,100/t to $1,968 and cheddar dropped from $3,125 to $2,850/t.

Quotes from the US again showed a drop in WMP quotes (down 6.3%), with prices down from $2,965 to $2,778. US skim prices lifted slightly from $1,587 to $1,641/t.

On spot prices, the latest Dutch and Italian prices dropped slightly to finish at 20c/litre.

The factors which have caused the downturn in dairy markets haven’t changed dramatically. Surplus production, especially in some parts of Europe, and stock accumulation continue to drive prices down.

On the demand side, the absence of Russia, the lower buying activity and economic performance of China and lower oil revenues of many customer countries still remain.

Many commentators and analysts, including the chief executives of the two major Irish processors announcing results this week, have expressed increasingly gloomy forecasts of a long downturn, which could take more than a year to turn around.

Yet, when the market is in a forward gear, they are slow to look much more than a couple of months ahead.