The consequences that the UK leaving the EU will have on Irish agriculture – and in particular farm incomes – finally started to sink in as we reached the end of 2016 – nearly six months after the outcome of the referendum became known. It was a six-month period during which farm incomes were left totally exposed to a 26% structural devaluation of sterling. Worryingly, both Brussels and our Government stood idle and to date have totally ignored the need to protect farmers and small sterling-exposed businesses from what is a political issue.
As we head into 2017, Irish agriculture has a real battle to ensure its voice is heard around the Brexit negotiating table – at national and EU level. It should be centre stage on both fronts. At home, no other sector in our economy is as reliant on the UK market as agri food. In the EU, no other member state is as reliant on the UK market as Ireland.
There will be plenty of competing voices and policy positions, representing a diverse range of sectors in what will be an exceptionally complex set of negotiations. For the Irish agri food sector to be heard, it must establish a strong negotiating strategy that will be communicated with one voice – a strategy that protects all aspects of a sector worth over €25bn per annum to the Irish economy, supporting over 220,000 jobs.
The interests of the Irish agri food sector will not be best served if we maintain the tradition of various stakeholders presenting different policy positions, each competing with the other to be heard.
Delivering a united approach will require leadership, starting at farm level. All stakeholders representing farmers’ interests and those of the wider industry need to put aside what, in the context of Brexit, are minor differences and form one coherent policy position. This should not take the form of another talking-shop forum led by Government. Instead, it should be led and controlled by farmers with strong alignment and input from the agri food sector.
The challenge of establishing a policy position for Irish agriculture should not be underestimated. Given the high stakes at play, farmers and the wider industry should not rule out investing in the establishment of a top-level advisory group with the expertise necessary to advise and steer the sector through the next three- to five-year period.
There are many corners that we need to be able to look around. To date, demands have largely been superficial, focusing on the need for Ireland to retain free access to the UK market post-Brexit. It’s a shallow policy position. Merely securing market access will not safeguard the Irish export market if our goods are competing in a nationalised UK marketplace at heavily discounted prices, or if Irish produce is forced to compete with South American or US imports that are produced to different and lower-cost standards.
Market access must be accompanied by agreement around trading regulations on key issues such as equivalent standards and state aid rules – similar to what exists across EU member states. Speaking at the Oxford farming conference this week, UK secretary of state for environment, food and rural affairs Andrea Leadsom said that, when it comes to imports, British standards on animal welfare and traceability would not be reduced after leaving the EU. How far this commitment will be translated into reality remains to be seen but Irish and EU negotiators need to hold the UK to its promise when push comes to shove.
The Brexit policy for Irish agriculture must also look beyond the UK market and put forward a strategy as to how Brussels should respond not only during the negotiations but also in the event of hard Brexit – which is looking increasingly likely.
Any advisory group must therefore have specific expertise on WTO regulations and be in a position to challenge Brussels when it comes to protecting agri food.
There is a major job of work ahead in steering Irish agriculture through the fallout from Brexit. And there is the potential of further disruption to normal trade flows under a Trump presidency in the US. There will be plenty of twists and turns in the next 12 to 24 months with some still believing that Brexit may never happen. Regardless, the stakes are simply too high for Irish farmers not to prepare for what could be a real battle to protect our access to what is essentially the lifeblood of our agri food sector – the British consumer.
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