Suckler cow numbers would decline by about 65,000 head or 6% between 2015 and 2020, under FAPRI Ireland projections made earlier this year.

This recent model by FAPRI Ireland is based on there being 1,064,000 suckler cows in the country in 2015. Numbers would decline each year and by 2020 the suckler cow herd would have fallen to 999,200. This is broadly consistent with other FAPRI projections over the past year or two.

However, FAPRI Ireland ran the 2015 model on in time to 2035, and this suckler cow model projects numbers falling to just 513,000 head – a 52% drop from the numbers of 2015.

FAPRI researcher Trevor Donnellan told the Irish Farmers Journal that this projection is based on the assumption that farmers’ EU subsidy payments remain fixed in nominal terms right through the period, with the real value of income in cattle production therefore falling considerably.

Projections

“These numbers are not forecasts,” he told the Irish Farmers Journal. “They are projections that reflect assumptions about what policy might be like in the future. In reality, we don’t know what CAP policy will look like beyond 2020, but it is necessary to make some working assumption on what policy might look like in order to be able to report these numbers.

“Of course, if beef production were somehow to receive a higher level of support in the future, we’d have a different set of projections and could expect those to show a slower rate of decline in suckler numbers.”

FAPRI Ireland is asked to make long-term models for a number of other agencies, such as the EPA. The figures are contained in FAPRI-Ireland, Donnellan and Hanrahan 2015.