The UK’s risk level has now been reduced to low to reflect the cold weather, wind direction and low likelihood of virus circulation in local midge populations in the UK. However, DEFRA’s Animal and Plant Health Agency said it will continue to monitor the situation in France.

The latest situation assessment reports that “new foci of infection are not being reported in the north” of France.

Weather forecasts show that average temperatures in the UK and France are dropping and are currently well below 15°C, which will slow the virus replication rate. However, it won’t fully prevent midge activity during the warmer parts of the day. Also, wind direction is predominantly northwesterly, according to the UK Met Office’s NAME model. This means that there is less likelihood of the wind assisting midges to move from France to the UK. This is despite the fact that France’s restricted zone is now as close to the UK as it has ever been, extending up to Loire Atlantique in the northwest.

Since the last situation assessment on 26 September, France has reported 283 new outbreaks of the disease. All the new cases were in cattle where just one or two animals tested positive out of the total herd and only one was a report of a dead individual animal.