Minister Charlie McConalogue came out last week and said no farmer would be forced to cut stock numbers. The new 25% emissions target would involve no mandatory culling of the national herd.

This raised eyebrows. At face value to the non-farming public it sounded like a minister that had the farmers’ backs. Some farmers even said to themselves what is all the shouting about, this 25% cut might not be too bad after all.

However, you have to stand back and look at the big picture to see what is actually happening.

So how will the 25% target be realised? The minister is putting a bet on two things. Firstly, he is unrolling a suite of measures that will reduce stock numbers.

Secondly, he is hoping new technology such as feed additives to reduce methane can do a lot of the heavy lifting once stock numbers have reduced.

So what are the suite of measures to reduce stock numbers?

1 Nitrate Derogation changes

According to the Department, the writing is on the wall for Ireland’s derogation on organic nitrogen. Essentially this is a stocking rate tool that will drive down stock numbers in parts of the country. Firstly, knock 30kg of organic nitrogen (slurry produced per cow) off the overall farm stocking rate by lowering the limit from 250-220kg/ha. Secondly, the introduction of banding (a more specific measure on slurry produced) means some dairy farmers will be forced to reduce by a further by 10-20kg of organic nitrogen per cow. Combine both measures and for some farms that’s half a cow per hectare that has to go. The dairy farmer has two options – take the hit and reduce stock or get more land. Economics and profitability means they get it so other livestock enterprises don’t get it. Net result, less stock on dairy and drystock farms.

2 Artificial nitrogen limits down

Bag nitrogen is the driver of feed on many productive farms around Ireland. It’s the foot on the growth pedal, especially in April and May when it comes to fulfilling winter feed requirements. The Food Vision Dairy Group has a reduction of 30% in its line of sight by 2030, but most of that reduction (22-25%) is to be achieved by 2025. This also drives dairy farmers into the land market. Again economics means they will squeeze other sectors. Net effect, less stock.

3 Suckler cow numbers down

The money has flowed and is flowing out of sucklers and into area-based environmental schemes that reward farmers for having less livestock. The money is for growing more diverse grass species that are not at all productive and are not going to sustain livestock. If a farmer can get more for doing a lot less then it makes no economic sense to keep struggling with sucklers. Sucklers are down 5% since 2018. Net effect, less stock.

4 Anaerobic digestion

Growing grass for digesters could be an attractive alternative for some farmers. I can’t see dairy farmers easily being interested in doing this, given the profitability of dairy. However, (if the price is right) it could be attractive for some drystock farmers, since the land would remain as grassland. It would be better than forestry for some diehard grassland farmers and maybe offer more alternatives than a long-term bet on forestry. Requiring 500 to 600 acres of grass per digester and maybe more if artificial nitrogen levels fall off will soak up a lot of land. Again, no livestock needed thank you.

5 Organics rollout

Is the lure of €250-300/ha enough to get some suckler and drystock enterprises interested? The Department has €250m allocated for this so it is a big push. For many the switch would not be that big an ask as levels of artificial nitrogen spread are relatively small. If there is €300/ha to be gathered up and the possibility maybe of a premium on sales, then why not. Net effect, land signed up to a organic contract, less stock on land and no artificial nitrogen so no surplus livestock feed.

6 CAP changes

Slashing single farm payments from the full-time suckler farmers who are producing grass-fed suckler beef is a huge disincentive to continue with that enterprise. Given traditional profitability levels, this is in effect taking income off these farmers as they were dependent on high entitlements as an income source. Front-loading takes another chunk of the income and then thirdly they have to spend money to comply with an environmental scheme.

All of a sudden you have a significant income change that will make a suckler farmer see his or her business in a completely new light. Net effect is less stock as other non-stock alternatives will shine much brighter for already busy people with off-farm income.

7 Cow reduction scheme

The Food Vision Dairy Group has a voluntary dairy cow reduction scheme on the cards and the timeline is to have a draft proposal of that scheme in place for the first half of 2023.

Many dairy farmers have stock built up that long term are not part of the business and undoubtedly many would cash in. Many nearing the end game of business will also consider this as an orderly exit if a tax incentive were part of the mix. The Food Vision Beef Group is that little bit behind in discussions, but, very quickly it will catch up and I’m sure it will also see a reduction scheme as part of the solution. This could be a costly one for the minister but they’ll find the money in Brussels. Net result, less stock on the island.

8 Milk processing capacity on limit

There might well be some gradual increase in dairy cow numbers or yield per cow but there is limited capacity for expansion in some processors. The planning logistics mean any future developments are relatively long term so brakes are on for the moment at least.

9 Forestry and rewetting

There is a lot of talk and much reduced planting in 2021 and 2022, however, if the Department gets its ducks in a row on licensing as promised, and if the right tax incentives are in place, expect more to consider this option. Now that there is more focus on planting lowlands rather than mountains the net effect is this will take more land from livestock.

10 Solar on land

So we haven’t the sheds covered but yet we want to cover up the land with solar panels. Yes, we might be able to graze a few sheep to keep the weeds down, but in reality it’s another chunk of land out of the system for any of the remaining livestock farmers.