By now, there will be very few in Irish agriculture who are unaware of the situation in Ukraine, but the repercussions of the associated political actions will be less well understood.
Some are a direct consequence of the invasion, such as the sanctions being placed on Russia and the cessation of exports from Ukraine.
Gas and fertiliser prices had been centre stage long before Russia invaded Ukraine and the increasing dependence of the EU on Russia for its energy had begun to resonate with ordinary people.
While there may well be further upward price pressure on energy and fertiliser, this is not the only farm input likely to see price increases on tillage farms this year.
Chemical price pressure
Tillage farmers have been very aware of the hike in the cost of glyphosate since last autumn.
This was not Black Sea related, as it had been an issue long before any reported troop build-up outside of Ukraine.
This was a legacy effect of the blockage of the Suez Canal by the Ever Given container ship, which caused very substantial disruption to global trade of raw materials at the time.
That backlog, plus COVID-19 issues seems to have caused substantial production and logistical issues for intermediaries across the agrochemical sector. The lack of these substances subsequently became a limiting factor for the production of some, but not all, agrochemicals.
Prices here increased by around 200%
The experience with glyphosate was perhaps the first example of a product availability concern, coupled with a price hike. Prices here increased by around 200%, while other countries saw increases of up to 500%. This experience begs the question of whether or not we will see similar increases emerge for other products.
Price concerns
With this in mind, I recently asked some of the main producer companies how they see product supply levels for the coming year and what growers can expect in terms of price increases.
The good news is that the situation with glyphosate is not likely to be replicated on a widespread scale. But from what I hear, availability may well be an issue for some individual products that use ingredients that are caught up in the Asian-based supply chain.
As of now, it is not expected that there will be any scarcity of product in relation to the expected demand level or requirement. However, this is always difficult to predict and unexpected surges in demand for a specific product can occur. This can happen with herbicides, but it is more likely with fungicides or insecticides when an atypical epidemic emerges.
Most crops have quite a lot of mildew present over winter
One of the immediate worries in this regard would be specific curative mildewicides, such as Tern. Most crops have quite a lot of mildew present over winter and the weather and pattern of growth in spring will be a huge factor in whether this will progress to new spring growth.
As of now, it seems that there are adequate supplies to cope with this possible requirement
While mildew may not be the most yield-robbing disease, it will cause significant problems if it is allowed to develop unhindered, so there could be a big surge in demand for this curative mildewicide. As of now, it seems that there are adequate supplies to cope with this possible requirement.
Variable increases
While there may not be scarcity or major price increases, it seems that there will be some level of increase on most, if not all, products for this season. These reflect the myriad of costs that have occurred at all levels in industry, such as energy and transport, but they are also likely to reflect the cost of ensuring supply by organising to have products in the country much earlier than they might otherwise have been.
The main companies indicate that these price increases are likely to be in the region of 5-7%. Price increases are unlikely to be uniform and all companies indicated that some individual products might either be scarce or much more expensive.
The companies indicate that this problem relates to the availability or cost of specific intermediaries used in the formulation of products. Availability and cost issues appear to relate to individual products rather than actives, so this is not an issue that relates to any specific company.
One of the suggested background issues relating to ingredient supply was the occasional closure of factories because of COVID-19
So, the market this year may have products with little or no price increase, many with prices that are 5-7% higher and a few that may carry a price that that is up 20-25% on last season.
One of the suggested background issues relating to ingredient supply was the occasional closure of factories because of COVID-19. This meant that stocks of product, which might normally exist in the supply chain, were largely used up, leaving production dependent on real-time raw material delivery. In this scenario, any delays in shipping or transport would reduce production, which remains a concern for products currently being manufactured.
The one product that will most likely be scarce is glyphosate. It seems that this will apply to all brands and those in the industry suggest that current availability looks to be back by 20-25% on previous years. This is reflected in price levels, but perhaps we may see a significant reduction in usage this year, given all the factors that are impinging on all aspects of agriculture.
Decisions on which crop to plant across north and south America could have significant impact on global demand
It must also be said that the situation with glyphosate is changing weekly – both supply and price. Decisions on which crop to plant across north and south America could have significant impact on global demand.
Here in Ireland, any reduction in grassland reseeding would have a big impact on total requirement, as usage on grassland alone is estimated to account for nearly 50% of annual use. So too would any change in the routine use of the product ahead of harvest, or its use in stale seedbeds.
Supply routes
Most companies reported that they have streamlined their supply chains in recent years as a result of Brexit. Most products are now coming into Ireland directly from the continent rather than Britain.
Given the disruption to international trade patterns caused by logistical delays and fears over the potential impact of COVID-19, much or all of the product needed for Ireland this season was taken into store much earlier than usual to ensure supply.
There would appear to be adequate agchem supply availability for the anticipated crop area this season. Additional acres could put pressure on supply.Most products will carry a 5-7% price rise but some individual products could be up by 20-25%.Growers should shop around to enable them to choose products that avoid the biggest price increases.
By now, there will be very few in Irish agriculture who are unaware of the situation in Ukraine, but the repercussions of the associated political actions will be less well understood.
Some are a direct consequence of the invasion, such as the sanctions being placed on Russia and the cessation of exports from Ukraine.
Gas and fertiliser prices had been centre stage long before Russia invaded Ukraine and the increasing dependence of the EU on Russia for its energy had begun to resonate with ordinary people.
While there may well be further upward price pressure on energy and fertiliser, this is not the only farm input likely to see price increases on tillage farms this year.
Chemical price pressure
Tillage farmers have been very aware of the hike in the cost of glyphosate since last autumn.
This was not Black Sea related, as it had been an issue long before any reported troop build-up outside of Ukraine.
This was a legacy effect of the blockage of the Suez Canal by the Ever Given container ship, which caused very substantial disruption to global trade of raw materials at the time.
That backlog, plus COVID-19 issues seems to have caused substantial production and logistical issues for intermediaries across the agrochemical sector. The lack of these substances subsequently became a limiting factor for the production of some, but not all, agrochemicals.
Prices here increased by around 200%
The experience with glyphosate was perhaps the first example of a product availability concern, coupled with a price hike. Prices here increased by around 200%, while other countries saw increases of up to 500%. This experience begs the question of whether or not we will see similar increases emerge for other products.
Price concerns
With this in mind, I recently asked some of the main producer companies how they see product supply levels for the coming year and what growers can expect in terms of price increases.
The good news is that the situation with glyphosate is not likely to be replicated on a widespread scale. But from what I hear, availability may well be an issue for some individual products that use ingredients that are caught up in the Asian-based supply chain.
As of now, it is not expected that there will be any scarcity of product in relation to the expected demand level or requirement. However, this is always difficult to predict and unexpected surges in demand for a specific product can occur. This can happen with herbicides, but it is more likely with fungicides or insecticides when an atypical epidemic emerges.
Most crops have quite a lot of mildew present over winter
One of the immediate worries in this regard would be specific curative mildewicides, such as Tern. Most crops have quite a lot of mildew present over winter and the weather and pattern of growth in spring will be a huge factor in whether this will progress to new spring growth.
As of now, it seems that there are adequate supplies to cope with this possible requirement
While mildew may not be the most yield-robbing disease, it will cause significant problems if it is allowed to develop unhindered, so there could be a big surge in demand for this curative mildewicide. As of now, it seems that there are adequate supplies to cope with this possible requirement.
Variable increases
While there may not be scarcity or major price increases, it seems that there will be some level of increase on most, if not all, products for this season. These reflect the myriad of costs that have occurred at all levels in industry, such as energy and transport, but they are also likely to reflect the cost of ensuring supply by organising to have products in the country much earlier than they might otherwise have been.
The main companies indicate that these price increases are likely to be in the region of 5-7%. Price increases are unlikely to be uniform and all companies indicated that some individual products might either be scarce or much more expensive.
The companies indicate that this problem relates to the availability or cost of specific intermediaries used in the formulation of products. Availability and cost issues appear to relate to individual products rather than actives, so this is not an issue that relates to any specific company.
One of the suggested background issues relating to ingredient supply was the occasional closure of factories because of COVID-19
So, the market this year may have products with little or no price increase, many with prices that are 5-7% higher and a few that may carry a price that that is up 20-25% on last season.
One of the suggested background issues relating to ingredient supply was the occasional closure of factories because of COVID-19. This meant that stocks of product, which might normally exist in the supply chain, were largely used up, leaving production dependent on real-time raw material delivery. In this scenario, any delays in shipping or transport would reduce production, which remains a concern for products currently being manufactured.
The one product that will most likely be scarce is glyphosate. It seems that this will apply to all brands and those in the industry suggest that current availability looks to be back by 20-25% on previous years. This is reflected in price levels, but perhaps we may see a significant reduction in usage this year, given all the factors that are impinging on all aspects of agriculture.
Decisions on which crop to plant across north and south America could have significant impact on global demand
It must also be said that the situation with glyphosate is changing weekly – both supply and price. Decisions on which crop to plant across north and south America could have significant impact on global demand.
Here in Ireland, any reduction in grassland reseeding would have a big impact on total requirement, as usage on grassland alone is estimated to account for nearly 50% of annual use. So too would any change in the routine use of the product ahead of harvest, or its use in stale seedbeds.
Supply routes
Most companies reported that they have streamlined their supply chains in recent years as a result of Brexit. Most products are now coming into Ireland directly from the continent rather than Britain.
Given the disruption to international trade patterns caused by logistical delays and fears over the potential impact of COVID-19, much or all of the product needed for Ireland this season was taken into store much earlier than usual to ensure supply.
There would appear to be adequate agchem supply availability for the anticipated crop area this season. Additional acres could put pressure on supply.Most products will carry a 5-7% price rise but some individual products could be up by 20-25%.Growers should shop around to enable them to choose products that avoid the biggest price increases. 
This is a subscriber-only article
SHARING OPTIONS: