UK Prime Minister is making a quick visit to Dublin this morning for talks with the Taoiseach, and one of the things that is being mentioned is a possible recycling of a Northern Ireland (NI) only backstop.

If it was to happen, at a stroke all issues with border inspections on the island of Ireland would be solved much to the relief of the Dublin Government and the EU from the point of view of the single market being protected. However it isn’t a magic solution for farmers and the biggest problem, ie price would remain.

Threat to value of British market

If NI were to remain aligned with the EU on customs and standards, there is an even greater possibility of Britain diverging from EU standards as they pursue other trade deals particularly with the USA. More access to the British market from non EU suppliers serves to undermine farm gate prices, especially for beef. The consequences from this would be felt by both Irish and British farmers.

An NI only backstop which would take effect if the EU and UK couldn’t reach a deal by the end of the transition period, would address the problem that would face NI dairy and sheep farmers as it would allow trade continue as usual. Of course if an NI only backstop became acceptable, then the possibility of a Brexit deal with a version of the withdrawal agreement that has already been rejected by parliament, becomes a real possibility.

What would Parliament do?

The issue in Parliament at present is leaving with no deal and previously there was no appetitive for a deal that included the entire UK in the backstop. It would be interesting to see how Parliament might react if they had an NI only backstop as an option and if it were to pass it would allow the PM exit the EU as he wants on 31 October. If that were to happen, the UK would move into the transition process which in turn mean there would be no changes at all for trade while a longer-term relationship between the UK and EU was negotiated.

This was the original plan back in December 2017 but was switched to a UK wide backstop because the DUP, found a Northern Ireland only version politically unacceptable. Given the current political arithmetic in Parliament following several Conservative MP’s rebelling against the government and subsequently being expelled, the prime minister has lost his majority even with DUP support. This changes numbers in Parliament, the lack of options for the prime minister following the series of votes lost last week along with his desire to get out of the EU by 31 October means that anything is now possible in his pursuit of that option.