ABIEC, the association that represents Brazil’s meat factories, has revealed that beef production will need to increase by 35% between now and 2030.

This is required to meet domestic and export demand, for which the most conservative forecast is to exceed 3m tonnes between 2025 and 2030.

They are looking to a 45% increase in productivity from livestock to deliver this growth, with the national cattle herd forecast to increase from 196.5m in 2021 to 203.1m by 2031.

Annual cattle slaughter is forecast to increase from 39.1m head in 2021 to 47.5m head by 2031 and average carcase weight is forecast to increase from 248kg to 268kg.

Markets

Despite being closed out of the market between September and December, China remained Brazil’s largest export market in 2021, taking 723,656t, and with Hong Kong taking 219,933t, it meant 51% of all beef exports went to greater China.

The US was their next largest export market, taking 138,783t or 7.5% of all exports, and this market has grown further in 2022.

The EU was a relatively small market, taking 77,266t of beef or just over 4% in 2021.

The value of Brazil’s beef exports in 2021 was $9.2bn (€8.6bn), an increase of 8.4% on 2020 values and it is forecast to increase again in 2022 to over $10bn (€9.3bn).

For 2022, ABIEC is forecasting that the Canadian market will be successfully opened, while negotiations are ongoing with the high-value Japanese and South Korean markets.

They also see growth possibilities in China, where total business was suspended for three months in 2021 and several factories have been suspended because of COVID-19.

In addition to beef, Brazil exported 4.5m tonnes of poultry meat and 1.1m tonnes of pig meat in 2021.

Comment

Growth in Brazil’s beef industry has been on an upward trajectory for several decades and this is predicted to continue for the remainder of the decade at least, with annual cattle slaughter forecast to increase by more than 8m head.

This increase is more than four times Ireland’s total annual kill.

With global beef consumption also forecast to increase over the coming decade, it is clear that Brazil will be a major supplier to these expanded markets.

This expansion in Brazil contrasts sharply with the ambitions in Ireland to focus on reduction of emissions from agriculture rather than production, despite being one of the most sustainable countries in the world for livestock production.