With just one month to go until the UK ceases being part of the EU single market and customs union, there is still no clarity on what the terms of trade will be on 1 January.

What is known is that customs declarations and veterinary health certificates for products of animal origin will return, an unwelcome addition of red tape to commercial transactions between EU member states and Britain.

Northern Ireland will be in between, with the need for veterinary certification on imports from Britain, though these won’t be required on product leaving Northern Ireland and going to the rest of the UK.

There is little point speculating further on how the negotiations will finish – the threat of trading with tariffs remains considerable, although a last minute deal could still be negotiated.

Certification and origin

This week, the issue of fresh meat products not being able to be exported from Britain to the island of Ireland captured considerable media attention.

This is one of the outworkings of the UK's departure from the EU single market, as there is no EU health certificate for fresh meat products, although there is for frozen.

Volumes of processed meat, such as burgers, sausages and delicatessen meats imported fresh, are relatively small, although a much bigger issue in the North where retailers such as Sainsbury and Asda and the Henderson group of convenience stores are largely serviced from distribution centres in Britain.

Brexit preparation

A quick tour of Dublin Port this week revealed that facilities are in place to undertake inspections and provide truck parking, although it is thought there will be traffic consequences of this in the vicinity of the port.

Progress on infrastructure is lagging in Britain but is being actioned on at present.

They have created some space by declaring that their border controls on imports will be phased in over a six-month period in 2021, not immediately on 1 January.

This will assist traffic flow and should prevent port delays on Irish exports entering Britain, but the paperwork will still be required.

Impact on prices

The combination of Brexit stockpiling of beef, increased supermarket demand and reopening of restaurant and hospitality in a controlled way in the lead-up to Christmas have all combined to create a tremendous demand for beef.

Supermarkets are keen to ensure that there are no empty shelves in January and, at this point, beef can be stockpiled chilled to supply the opening weeks of the year, irrespective of the Brexit deal or no deal.

If a no-tariff deal is concluded in the coming days, then it will be a case of continued trading in the early part of 2021, although with burden of the customs and veterinary paperwork.

The UK trade deal with Japan and rolling over the EU-Canada deal won't impact on beef or sheepmeat imports.

A US deal looks like it remains some way off, while the negotiations with Australia and New Zealand will give greater access to beef and sheepmeat, with dairy included in the New Zealand mix.

Again, these deals are some way from being concluded and, in any case, Irish dairy competes with New Zealand in global markets, so it should also be competitive in the UK.

New Zealand beef is currently trading around the equivalent of €3.20/kg and would be a serious competitor for Ireland in the British market.

On sheepmeat, New Zealand hasn't come close to filling its sheepmeat quota for the EU in recent years, so it is less of an issue.

Ordinarily, we would also expect Australia to be a major competitor to Ireland for beef into Britain. However, it is currently rebuilding its national herd, with the cattle population at its lowest in 20 years.

This has driven the price of beef to the equivalent of €4.20/kg, well ahead of the current Irish price, so it is unlikely Australian beef imports would replace Irish imports in the immediate future at these price levels.

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