Public transport has been a major casualty of the pandemic. Cities around the world have been reporting catastrophic declines in bus and rail patronage with smaller declines for the private car, which has increased its share of a smaller market.

The picture varies from city to city, but many are reporting car traffic down 10% or 20% and buses are down 40% or 50%, while suburban rail is down in places by 80% and even 90%. The financial position of public transport companies has worsened dramatically. Some have received generous Government support and kept services running but some, including big-city transit operators in the US, are facing bankruptcy, have curtailed services and cancelled investment plans. Joe Biden will have to mobilise support in Congress to bail them out with federal funds.

Working from home means fewer commuters. Fear of catching the virus dissuades people from discretionary travel in the company of strangers and the private car is preferred if you must make the trip. According to the American Public Transportation Association, total ridership in June 2020 was down across the US by 81% for all rail modes and by 55% for buses.

London Underground passenger volume is down about 70% but buses only about 40%

More recent data show rail in Boston down 76%, San Francisco’s Bay Area Rapid Transit down 89% and the Washington Metro down 87%. The decline for buses has been less severe – down 41% in Boston, for example, and down 60% in Washington. London Underground passenger volume is down about 70% but buses only about 40%.

The reasons for the relatively weaker performance of rail systems versus buses are complex and not all systems have maintained pre-COVID-19 schedules. But it appears that the switch to work-from-home has had a greater negative impact on rail than on buses. Rail operators will worry that the effect will be permanent.

In Ireland, the international pattern has been repeated – rail patronage has fallen more than buses, although all three state companies, Irish Rail, Bus Éireann and Dublin Bus, have lost a majority of passengers and are seeing horrendous financial losses.

Used car prices rose in many markets as customers deserted public transport, suggesting that some lower-income commuters opted for car ownership, which could see an enduring contraction in rail and bus patronage. This could be a significant factor in countries where car ownership has traditionally been lower than real incomes would suggest, a category which includes Ireland.

There has been a noticeable shift to cycling – more bad news for the bus and train operators

Several EU countries with markedly lower household income than Ireland have higher per-capita car ownership rates, reflecting high Irish taxes on purchase and ownership. This is especially the case in Dublin, which has the lowest car ownership rates in the country. There has been a noticeable shift to cycling – more bad news for the bus and train operators.

If vaccination brings the severe phase of the pandemic to an end, volumes will recover but will they recover to pre-COVID-19 levels, and what might be the implications for transport investment? If there is, as some analysts are predicting, a permanent decline in city centre office employment, the case for heavy investment in suburban rail systems is weakened. This is less of an issue for commuter bus systems where the investment costs are not so heavy – the roads are there already. Ireland’s National Development Plan contains ambitious schemes for rail transport, including expensive underground projects in Dublin and there are supporters of light rail in provincial cities. Until the lasting impact of the shift to home-working becomes clearer, these schemes are a shot in the dark.

If electricity generation has been largely decarbonised by then, shifting traffic off the roads and on to rail no longer delivers a big emissions dividend

In the longer term, the Government is committed to the promotion of electric cars and it is possible that, 20 years from now, the car fleet, and perhaps most buses and commercial vehicles, will be using electric traction. If electricity generation has been largely decarbonised by then, shifting traffic off the roads and on to rail no longer delivers a big emissions dividend.

While it will never be possible to decarbonise road transport entirely – wind and solar power are weather dependent and there will be a permanent role for gas-fired stations and possibly nuclear baseload plants – the status of road transport as a heavy source of emissions is changing and the balance of advantage is no longer clearly favourable to rail-based systems. If the Government intends to take the carbon emissions out of road transport, in substantial degree, it is fair to query the apparent commitment to spend billions on rail systems which no longer offer a climate policy advantage.

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